The Alluring Attraction of Gold: Why Do People Rush to Buy When Prices Soar?

Explaining the reasons behind this paradox, economic expert Nguyen Bich Lam, former Director General of the General Statistics Office, attributes it entirely to the psychology of consumers. “When the gold price soars to peak levels, consumers fear that if they don’t buy it today, the price will continue to rise tomorrow, resulting in a higher purchasing cost. Additionally, numerous predictions indicating that the global gold price could reach 3,000 USD/ounce further fuel the belief that domestic gold prices will follow suit, prompting a rush to buy,” Mr. Lam analyzes.

Mr. Lam also points out that in the domestic market, the timing of this gold rush coincides with a lack of attractive investment avenues for idle funds, such as bank deposits, bills, bonds, and real estate. With limited options, consumers turn to gold as a perceived safe haven amid skyrocketing prices. “At that time, deposit interest rates were at their lowest in 20 years, hovering around 4% per annum. As a result, many people opted for gold as a means of preserving their wealth in a rapidly inflating market. This phenomenon can be attributed to the influence of herd behavior and speculative predictions lacking in accuracy”, Mr. Lam explains.

Regarding the indifference towards gold when the SJC gold bar price has dropped significantly and approached the world price, expert Nguyen Bich Lam attributes it to the stabilization of domestic gold prices, which has calmed consumers’ psychology, reducing the urgency to purchase gold as a store of value. Additionally, the recovery of other investment channels has provided consumers with more options. For instance, bank deposit interest rates have recently increased to 6% per annum.

From another perspective, Mr. Nguyen The Hung, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Business Association, suggests that the difficulties in purchasing gold through online channels have dampened the enthusiasm for gold buying. Meanwhile, physical stores are facing a shortage of gold bars and are only able to sell gold rings in limited quantities.

“Many people are frustrated with the process of buying gold online from banks. The complex procedures, long waiting times, and purchase quantity restrictions have deterred them from continuing to buy gold in this manner”, Mr. Hung says.

According to the Vice Chairman of the Gold Business Association, there was a time when people queued to buy gold at stabilized prices, but this was not necessarily driven by actual demand. There were cases where gold traders, seeing that the stabilized gold bars were sold at lower prices, hired people to queue and buy gold to resell at a higher price. However, with the introduction of online gold sales, these practices have ceased as the process has become more transparent.

Moreover, the SJC gold bar price, publicly listed by the State Bank of Vietnam, has remained stable in the external market for many days. Consequently, gold price fluctuations no longer significantly influence consumers’ psychology, and they are no longer anxiously monitoring and rushing to buy gold.

Mr. Hung believes that to address the genuine needs of those who wish to purchase SJC gold bars, the Gold Business Association has submitted a document to the Prime Minister and the State Bank of Vietnam, proposing that in addition to buying and selling gold online through commercial banks, gold businesses in the market be allowed to participate in selling stabilized gold according to regulations and state-set prices.

“By expanding the distribution channels for gold, consumers will have easier access to buying and selling SJC gold bars. This could potentially lead to an increase in demand”, Mr. Hung states.

Commenting on the appeal of gold in the investment market in the near future, Mr. Ta Thanh Tung, Head of Research and Consulting at FIDT Real Estate Company, believes that in the short term, gold still has room for growth in the last six months of the year, but the potential is limited, and it may not be as attractive for capital investment.

Therefore, for the remaining period of 2024, gold should remain in the investment portfolio, but it is advisable to consider it as a defensive asset, with a holding ratio not exceeding 5%. In the long run, as the global economy improves, gold prices will stabilize, and investors may find other assets more appealing.

Sharing this view, Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Analysis at Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, asserts that gold is a safe-haven asset for investors during times of economic and political instability. However, as we have moved past those turbulent periods, this investment avenue will likely lose its appeal.

“Although the instability has not entirely dissipated, gold prices surge only when these issues intensify. In the upcoming period, gold should be considered a defensive strategy, a safeguard against potential future crises. It is not advisable to allocate a significant portion of capital to gold. The golden age of gold has passed, and only occasional gusts of wind may blow”, Mr. Minh concludes.