The Expanding Arch: How Ho Chi Minh City’s Apartment Vacancy, Demand, and Prices are Set to Soar Through Year-End

"That was the assertion made by Trang Bui, CEO of Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, at the mid-year Ho Chi Minh City real estate market report event held on the morning of July 10, 2024."

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According to Ms. Trang, the apartment supply in Ho Chi Minh City will continue to be limited until the end of the year. Projects that are able to launch during this time have a significant advantage. Primary prices are expected to increase in the coming months.

Ms. Trang attributes this to a combination of factors, including rising deposit interest rates, increasing real estate credit balances, and the enforcement of new laws from August 1, 2024, which collectively indicate a positive outlook for the apartment market’s recovery. She notes that the city’s apartment market has already shown improvement in the first half of 2024, with better supply and transaction volumes. The government’s decisive actions and supportive policies have played a crucial role in accelerating the market’s recovery this year.

Data from Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam supports this positive outlook. Their figures show that the total apartment supply in Ho Chi Minh City for the first half of 2024 reached 1,200 units, a 54% decrease compared to the same period last year. The luxury segment accounted for 59% of this supply, with developers offering attractive incentives and flexible payment plans. The mid-range segment remains popular among buyers.

Ms. Trang Bui, General Director of Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, predicts a continued scarcity of apartment supply in Ho Chi Minh City at least until the end of the year, leading to increased demand and upward pressure on prices.

Ms. Trang Bui further explains that the shortage of land in central areas is driving the development of projects in peripheral and neighboring provinces. Additionally, developers are paying more attention to infrastructure development, which is creating a positive ripple effect on the demand for apartment projects in the city.

For instance, the FIATO Uptown apartment project by Thang Long Real Group in the former Thu Duc district (now Thu Duc City) has attracted a significant amount of interest. This project offers a rare opportunity for buyers in the area to purchase primary apartments at reasonable prices, catering to the needs of those looking for a practical home. The project’s proximity to key infrastructure, such as Belt Road No. 2 and major roads like Pham Van Dong, Vo Van Ngan, and National Highway 1A, also makes it convenient for residents to travel to the center of Thu Duc City and Ho Chi Minh City.

Ms. Trang also highlights that primary apartment prices continue to rise even amid market challenges. In the second quarter of 2024, the average primary apartment price in Ho Chi Minh City reached USD 3,480 per square meter, a 9% increase compared to the previous quarter and an 8% year-over-year increase.

Mr. Troy Griffiths, Deputy General Director of Savills Vietnam, shares a similar outlook. While transaction signals are positive, the supply of primary apartments in Ho Chi Minh City remains limited. He expects that policy changes, new planning, and the implementation of key infrastructure projects will stimulate the real estate market in the coming phases.

Savills data reveals that apartment transactions in the second quarter of 2024 doubled compared to the previous quarter and increased by 606% year-on-year to 2,302 units, accounting for 70% of the total sales in the past six months. However, the supply of apartments priced below VND 3 billion per unit is dwindling, making up only 18% of the total primary supply for the quarter. Primary apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City continue to climb, reaching an average of VND 73 million per square meter.

From a real estate business perspective, Ms. Nguyen Thai Ha, General Director of Thang Long Real Group, shared in a recent statement that the company decided to launch its project at this time due to positive economic recovery signals and the return of buyer confidence. The interest rate for home purchases remains manageable. As a result, their project has received encouraging interest from prospective buyers, who are primarily end-users and long-term rental investors, a shift from the previous wave of speculative and diversified investments.

“The market still needs supportive policies and mechanisms,” said Ms. Ha. “We hope for stable interest rates, easier access to real estate loans, and faster legal procedures to unblock stalled projects and increase supply, especially in the mid-range segment.”

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