A Brighter Economic Outlook: Empowering Stronger Growth and Surplus for a Prosperous Future

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized the goal of maintaining macroeconomic stability and curbing inflation, while also fostering stronger growth. He underscored the importance of ensuring favorable balances with substantial surpluses, with the overarching governance approach being that each subsequent month, quarter, and year should yield better results than the last. This means striving for higher achievements in 2024, encompassing more aspects and being more comprehensive than the accomplishments of 2023.

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On the morning of August 5, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired the regular monthly Government meeting for July 2024, with a packed agenda of important discussions.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired the regular Government meeting for July 2024, with a full agenda of important discussions – Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

The meeting focused on discussions about the socio-economic situation in July and the first seven months of the year, the allocation and disbursement of public investment capital, the Government’s direction and management, and other key tasks for the coming period.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) hit a five-year high

Reports and opinions presented at the meeting unanimously assessed that the socio-economic situation in July and the first seven months of the year achieved 13 outstanding results.

Firstly, the economy continued its positive growth trajectory in all three sectors. The agricultural sector maintained stable growth.

The industrial sector recovered well, with a 0.7% increase in July compared to June and an 11.2% rise year-on-year; for the first seven months, it grew by 8.5%. Sixty out of 63 provinces and cities saw an increase in the industrial production index in July compared to the same period last year, while three saw a decrease. Notably, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July 2024 reached 54.7 points, the highest since November 2018, with strong growth in output and new orders.

The service sector continued to grow steadily; total retail sales of goods and services revenue in July increased by 9.4%, and by 8.7% for the first seven months.

Secondly, the macroeconomy remained stable, inflation was kept under control, and the major balances were ensured. The consumer price index (CPI) averaged a 4.12% increase for the first seven months, a 0.04% rise compared to June (while core inflation rose by 2.73%, up 0.02% from June) in the context of a basic wage increase. Energy security and food security were guaranteed (rice exports reached 5.18 million tons, with a turnover of nearly 3.3 billion USD, up 5.8% and 25.1% respectively compared to the same period last year); the labor market recovered well, and the balance between labor supply and demand was basically ensured.

Thirdly, exports continued to grow strongly, with a large trade surplus, contributing to a positive balance of payments. Exports in July increased by 6.7% compared to June and by 19.1% year-on-year; for the first seven months, exports grew by 15.7% (the domestic sector grew by 21.1%, higher than the FDI sector’s 13.8%); imports increased by 18.5%; and there was a trade surplus of 14.08 billion USD.

Fourthly, state budget revenue increased sharply, and the state budget situation continued to improve. The total state budget for the first seven months is estimated at 69.8% of the annual estimate, up 14.6% over the same period last year (while 87,200 billion VND of taxes, fees, and charges have been exempted or reduced). Public debt, government debt, foreign debt, and budget overspending were kept lower than the set limits.

Fifthly, tourism recovered strongly, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. International visitors in July reached 1.15 million, and for the first seven months, the country welcomed nearly 10 million international arrivals, up 51% over the same period in 2023 and 1.9% higher than in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sixthly, investment in development continued to achieve positive results, creating a driving force for growth. The disbursement of public investment capital for the first seven months reached 34.68% of the plan. FDI attraction reached 18 billion USD, up 10.9%; FDI realization reached 12.55 billion USD, up 8.4%, the highest in the last five years.

Seventhly, business development continued its positive trend. In July, there were 14,700 newly established enterprises, up 7.3% over the same period last year; for the first seven months, there were 139,500 newly established and re-operating enterprises, up 5.9% over the same period last year (higher than the number of businesses withdrawing from the market).

Eighthly, the fields of culture and society were given due attention, and social security was ensured. The 77th anniversary of War Invalids and Martyrs’ Day was well organized. The new salary policies, which took effect from July 2024, were implemented properly, fully, and promptly. The total budget for allowances and preferential treatment for people with great contributions to the revolution increased by more than 5,300 billion VND. In July, 95.8% of households assessed their income as stable or higher than the same period.

Ninthly, the salary reform, which took effect from July 2024, received the consensus of the entire political system and the people across the country.

Tenthly, the Government focused on building and has basically completed the issuance of decrees guiding the amended Land Law, Housing Law, Real Estate Business Law, and Credit Institution Law.

Eleventhly, administrative reforms, especially the reduction and simplification of administrative procedures, digital transformation, Proposal 06, and anti-corruption efforts were promoted, contributing to strengthening people’s trust.

Twelfthly, political stability and social order and safety were maintained; national defense and security were strengthened. The election of Comrade To Lam as General Secretary by the Central Committee with an absolute majority of 100% of the votes affirmed the great unity and consensus within the Party. External affairs and international integration were promoted; the country’s prestige and position were enhanced; and many international organizations and experts continued to highly appreciate Vietnam’s economic results and prospects.

Thirteenthly, the Government promptly overcame the consequences of natural disasters and floods and supported families who lost their loved ones or had their houses washed away or damaged.

Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha speaks at the meeting – Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

Results improved from the previous month and the same period last year

Concluding the meeting, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh agreed with the reports and opinions presented, emphasizing additional points on the direction and management and the results achieved in July and the first seven months of the year.

In July, the Government coordinated with relevant agencies to organize the State funeral for General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong solemnly and safely, reflecting the deep gratitude and respect of the entire Party, people, and army for the late leader.

The Prime Minister appreciated that, since the beginning of the year, all levels and branches, and localities have actively, proactively, and flexibly implemented tasks and solutions according to the resolutions, conclusions, and directives of the Central Committee, Politburo, Secretariat, National Assembly, Government, and the Prime Minister.

In particular, we have closely monitored the situation and handled emerging issues in the short term flexibly, timely, and effectively, ensuring harmony with medium- and long-term tasks and solutions. Ministers, heads of agencies, and Chairpersons of provincial People’s Committees have proactively and actively performed their functions, tasks, and powers.

In July, the Government issued 23 decrees, 20 resolutions, 3 decisions, 8 telegrams, and 4 directives; for the first seven months, it issued 104 decrees, 153 resolutions, 812 decisions, 24 directives, and 71 telegrams.

The Prime Minister has issued many telegrams and documents directing the promotion of growth, control of inflation, and stabilization of the macro-economy; overcoming the consequences of floods and storms, and preventing and fighting diseases; and organizing national conferences on promoting public investment, urging the progress of key infrastructure projects, and the 500 kV power line project…

Regarding the socio-economic situation in July and the first seven months of 2024, the Prime Minister summarized that the situation continued its positive trend, with results in July generally higher than in June and the first seven months better than the same period last year in most fields.

The reports and opinions presented at the meeting unanimously assessed that the socio-economic situation in July and the first seven months of the year achieved 13 outstanding results – Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

On behalf of the Government, the Prime Minister acknowledged, thanked, praised, and highly appreciated the efforts of the Government members, leaders of ministries, agencies, and localities, and the coordination of the political system, which contributed to the country’s common achievements.

Along with the achieved results, the Prime Minister pointed out the difficulties and challenges facing the socio-economic situation.

Inflationary pressure remains high, especially due to volatile oil and food prices; the global financial, monetary, and real estate markets still carry many risks; global growth, trade, and investment are expected to recover but remain potentially risky. Production and business activities in some sectors are still facing difficulties. Access to credit remains challenging. The real estate market has initially stabilized, but difficulties and obstacles are still slow to resolve. The deployment of the VND 140,000 billion credit package for social housing is very slow; VND 26,500 billion of public investment capital has not been allocated yet.

The lives of a part of the people, especially in remote, border, and island areas, remain difficult. Natural disaster damage in the first seven months was VND 2,123 billion, 2.3 times higher than the same period last year. Crimes, especially cybercrimes, are still complex; and some serious labor accidents and fires have occurred…

After analyzing the reasons for the achievements and limitations, the Prime Minister agreed with the lessons drawn in the reports and the opinions expressed at the meeting, emphasizing the following lessons:

Firstly, it is necessary to strengthen unity and consensus within agencies and units and the entire political system and people; closely monitor the situation and respond to policies promptly, flexibly, and effectively; promote discipline, and improve the responsibility of leaders. Secondly, it is crucial to promote decentralization and delegation of power, increase proactiveness, flexibility, creativity, self-reliance, and self-resilience, along with the allocation of resources, improvement of the implementation capacity of subordinates, and enhancement of inspection, supervision, and control of power. Thirdly, more attention should be paid to information and communication work, especially policy communication, to contribute to building trust, creating excitement, and promoting self-reliance, self-improvement, determination, and efforts.

Looking ahead, the Prime Minister predicted that the world situation will continue to develop rapidly, complexly, and unpredictably; opportunities and advantages will be intertwined with difficulties and challenges, but the latter will be predominant.

The Prime Minister clarified the goals of continuing to maintain macro-economic stability and control inflation while promoting stronger growth, ensuring major balances and higher surpluses, and controlling public debt, government debt, foreign debt, and budget overspending. The political and social stability, national defense and security, and border sovereignty must be maintained. The guiding principle is that the results of the following months must be higher than those of the previous months, the following quarters better than the previous quarters, and the achievements of 2024 more comprehensive and inclusive than those of 2023.

Regarding the tasks and solutions for the coming period, the Prime Minister agreed with the reports and opinions and emphasized the following 12 key contents.

Firstly, according to their functions, tasks, and powers, the ministers, heads of agencies, and chairpersons of the People’s Committees of the provinces and centrally-run cities shall closely monitor the situation and organize the implementation of the resolutions of the Party, conclusions and directions of the Central Committee, Politburo, Secretariat, National Assembly, Government, and Prime Minister in a proactive, focused, and result-oriented manner; assign tasks with clear persons, content, responsibilities, timelines, products, and efficiency; strengthen supervision and inspection; promote emulation and commendation; and handle violations promptly.

Secondly, continue to prioritize promoting growth in association with maintaining macro-economic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring the major balances of the economy.

Continue to proactively, flexibly, timely, and effectively manage monetary policy; coordinate closely, harmoniously, and tightly with an appropriately expanded fiscal policy and other macro policies.

Regarding monetary policy, the State Bank shall focus on stabilizing exchange rates and the foreign exchange market; increase access to credit, especially for priority areas, striving for a credit growth rate of about 15% for the whole year; and continue to reduce lending interest rates. Regarding fiscal policy, the Ministry of Finance shall strive to increase revenue, practice economy in expenditure, and resolutely promote digital transformation and the application of electronic invoices in revenue management; and strictly practice economy in regular expenditures. Effectively implement policies on tax, fee, and charge exemption, reduction, and extension.

Implement synchronous solutions to control inflation according to the set targets. The Ministries of Finance, Industry and Trade, Agriculture and Rural Development, Education and Training, and Health, and relevant agencies shall focus on ensuring the stability of the market and prices of essential goods. Carefully assess the impact and make plans for adjusting the prices of public services (education and health) suitably. Be determined not to let any shortages occur and ensure the supply of electricity and gasoline to meet production and consumption demands in all situations.

At the same time, the Ministries of Planning and Investment and Finance shall proactively build a five-year socio-economic development plan, a five-year state financial plan, and a medium-term public investment plan for 2026-2030. In particular, it is necessary to pay attention to not spreading resources too thinly; central budget investment capital should be concentrated on key and important inter-regional and international connection projects.

Thirdly, focus on renewing traditional growth drivers and strongly promoting new growth drivers. Regarding investment, the Ministry of Planning and Investment shall take the lead in promoting the implementation of public investment projects and three national target programs, promoting private investment, public-private partnership, and selective FDI attraction.

Regarding exports, consolidate large and traditional markets and expand new markets (UAE, Halal, Latin America); support enterprises in meeting new standards and green standards, promoting trade promotion and market expansion, and responding to anti-dumping investigations for Vietnamese goods…

Regarding consumption, promote market development, boost domestic consumption, the “Vietnamese people give priority to using Vietnamese goods” movement, e-commerce, and cashless payment (associated with electronic invoices and tax collection). Have effective mechanisms and policies to strongly promote new growth drivers (especially in terms of institutions, mechanisms, and policies; regional, inter-regional, and urban development; digital transformation, green transformation, circular economy, sharing economy, knowledge-based economy, and high value-added industries such as chip manufacturing and AI…).

The Ministry of Planning and Investment shall take the lead in reviewing and proposing mechanisms and policies to create breakthroughs in these areas, paying attention to building and perfecting the legal framework for green development (green credit market, green transformation, circular economy…); and researching packages of policies with sufficient scale, feasibility, and suitability to support enterprises and promote new growth drivers such as chip manufacturing and AI. The Ministry of Finance shall urgently complete the proposal on developing the carbon market in Vietnam.

Fourthly, resolutely promote the disbursement of public investment capital and three national target programs. Continue to promote the activities of the five Working Groups of the Prime Minister and 26 Working Groups of the Government members.

The Ministries of Transport, Industry and Trade, Planning and Investment, and Construction, according to their functions, tasks, and powers, shall speed up the progress of key and important national infrastructure projects (especially the 500 kV power line project from Quang Trach to Pho Noi, which is expected to be inaugurated on the occasion of the 79th anniversary of the August Revolution and National Day on September 2); and the system of expressways (striving to put about 3,000 km into operation by 2025).

Expedite the allocation of the remaining VND 26,500 billion of public investment capital. The Ministry of Planning and Investment shall resolutely transfer capital to tasks and projects with fast disbursement and capital demands before August 15, 2024.

Fifthly, promote

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