Global interest rates have peaked, and many countries have begun cutting rates since early June 2024. In its latest report, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) showed flexibility by announcing that it doesn’t need to wait for the CPI to drop to 2% before reducing rates. This indicates a high likelihood of the Fed initiating rate cuts in the September meeting. Weakening US employment and economic growth data have investors optimistic about the possibility of two rate cuts this year.
The world economic growth is forecasted to stagnate compared to 2023, with the strong recovery of international trade being the main driver of global growth. Domestically, other macro-indices remain stable, and GDP grew well in Q2 2024. Exchange rates and interest rates will be the two most important issues in the last six months. Particularly, there is a high chance that interest rates in Vietnam will increase in the second half of 2024.
Vietnam’s export sector is experiencing a strong recovery compared to 2023. In the first six months, the estimated export turnover of goods reached 190.08 billion USD, up 14.5% over the same period (the trade balance of goods is estimated to have a surplus of 11.63 billion USD). Among them, seafood exports increased by 9.8% in volume and 6.3% in value, with the US and China being the fastest-growing markets. The textile industry recorded an export turnover of over 16.52 billion USD, up 5.04%, and wood exports reached 7.5 billion USD, up 23.1%.
According to Mr. Tran Nhat Trung, Director of Analysis at ACBS Securities, the total export turnover in the first seven months of 2024 reached 227 billion USD (up 15.7% over the same period). It is expected that Vietnam’s export sector will continue to grow well in the remaining months of 2024 compared to the low base of 2023 as the main export markets are actively importing goods for the upcoming year-end shopping season.
In addition, listed companies in the import-export industry have announced their semi-annual business results. This is an appropriate time for investors to choose businesses that can take advantage of the industry’s growth, have a solid business strategy, and maintain stable financial health.
The Vietstock LIVE #11 program, themed “Brightening Exports – Is There Substance Behind the Hype?”, will provide investors with a comprehensive overview of the import-export industry and its prospects for the remainder of the year through in-depth insights and analyses from experienced experts. This will enable investors to easily construct suitable investment portfolios for the final stretch of the year.
Vietstock LIVE is a series of online dialogue programs with experts on pressing issues in the economic and financial fields and their impacts on investment strategies. Through these programs, experts will share their experiences and asset allocation methods to build rational investment strategies amid unexpected events. This episode features Mr. Tran Nhat Trung, Director of Analysis at ACB Securities (ACBS); Prof. Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, a senior lecturer at the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City (UEH); and Mr. Nguyen Quang Minh, Director of Research at Vietstock, as the moderator.
The Vietstock LIVE #11 livestream on the theme “Brightening Exports – Is There Substance Behind the Hype?” will be broadcast live at 3:00 PM on Thursday, August 15, 2024, on the Vietstock Facebook Page & YouTube Channel and the ACBS Facebook Page & YouTube Channel. Investors are invited to tune in.
|
Mr. Tran Nhat Trung: Graduated in Economics from the University of Exeter, UK. With over 11 years of experience in the financial and securities market, he joined ACBS in 2015 in the research and investment strategy analysis department and is now the Director of Analysis at ACBS. Prior to joining ACBS, Mr. Trung worked at KPMG Vietnam. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan: He is currently a senior lecturer at the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City (UEH). He has published numerous research articles in prestigious international journals such as Technology Forecasting and Social Change, Research in International Business and Finance, and World Economy. In addition, he serves as an advisor to several provincial-level projects in the field of socio-economic development planning and digital transformation in Dong Nai, Dong Thap, Vinh Long, and Dak Nong, as well as Ho Chi Minh City. He is also a Senior Advisor to several Vietnamese technology companies, and his work in Blockchain has gained international recognition. Notably, he is the founder of Promete.ai, a company specializing in AI technology for Fintech, Agriculture, and Education. Mr. Nguyen Quang Minh: CMT Charterholder, Member of the American Association of Technical Analysts (MTA), and Director of Research at Vietstock. He is an expert with nearly 20 years of experience in analysis and investment in the Vietnamese stock market. |
Dragon Capital Chairman: “Long-term vision is needed, accepting necessary adjustments for a safer, more efficient, and higher quality market”
According to Mr. Dominic Scriven, Chairman of Dragon Capital, the role of the finance industry in the stock market will be significant in 2023 and possibly in 2024. The roles of other industries, such as real estate or consumer goods, will depend on their respective challenges.
Which bank offers the highest interest rate for online savings in early February 2024?
Beginning February 1st, 2024, several banks have been adjusting their interest rates downwards for savings accounts ranging from 1 to 24 months. Based on a survey conducted across 16 banks, the highest annual interest rate for online savings deposits at a 6-month term is 5%, while for a 12-month term, it is 5.35%.
4 Factors Putting Pressure on USD/VND Exchange Rate in Q1/2024
With the currency exchange rate fluctuating in the first few weeks of 2024, Mr. Ngo Dang Khoa, Director of Foreign Exchange, Capital Markets and Securities Services at HSBC Vietnam, highlights four factors putting pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate in Q1/2024…
Export of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products increases by over 79%
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in January 2024, the total export turnover of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries reached $5.14 billion, a 79.2% increase compared to the same period last year; while the import value was $3.72 billion. Therefore, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector achieved a trade surplus of over $1.4 billion in the first month of 2024, a more than 4.6-fold increase compared to the same period last year.
