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With global macroeconomic uncertainties and foreign investors continuously withdrawing from the Vietnamese market, the VN-Index has lost its mid-term upward trend that lasted from late 2023. It is now in a broad sideways trend with support at the 1,190 – 1,300 region and strong resistance at the 1,300 level.
On the positive side, after a significant correction in July, the VN-Index is witnessing some strong recovery sessions with the return of trading volume, indicating bottom-fishing buying interest. This recovery is supported by large-cap stocks such as VHM and SAB, as well as stocks from the retail sector like PNJ and MWG, and stocks from the real estate and securities sectors.
As the buying interest returns, sectors that are expected to attract capital inflows include port operations, chemicals, seafood, retail, and securities. These sectors are anticipated to benefit from supportive macroeconomic factors and show a recovery in their business operations. Additionally, sectors that have been heavily discounted recently, such as real estate, are also expected to witness a certain level of recovery, creating speculative opportunities.
The VN-Index is showing signs of recovery after a significant correction in July.
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With the ongoing recovery, investors can consider accepting a higher level of risk by increasing their equity allocation to 70-80% of their portfolio and distributing their investments proportionally. It is important to pay closer attention to risk management as the VN-Index approaches the 1,300 resistance level once again.
In the first scenario, the VN-Index is expected to reach the 1,300 level, and capital will continuously rotate between sectors. Selling pressure is likely to emerge at the resistance level. If global macroeconomic conditions take a turn for the worse, the VN-Index may return to a corrective phase and continue its broad sideways trend. In the second scenario, the VN-Index reaches the 1,300 level, and despite the emergence of selling pressure, buyers remain dominant, coupled with the positive momentum in the US stock market. In this case, the VN-Index breaks above 1,300 and enters a mid-term upward trend.
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Bank stocks sold off heavily
Today (2/2), the VN-Index continues to rise, but in a cautious trading atmosphere. It is noteworthy that most banking stocks in the VN30 basket are facing strong selling pressure.
