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When it comes to the global grain market, and wheat in particular, Ukraine stands out as one of the world’s major suppliers. Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the country was the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter, accounting for 10% of total global supply.

In addition, Ukraine is one of the top three exporters of barley, corn, and rapeseed oil in the world, and the largest exporter of sunflower oil, accounting for 46% of global exports.

Notably, this agricultural powerhouse is ramping up its wheat exports to Vietnam with unprecedented growth. Specifically, Ukraine exported 612,846 tons of wheat to Vietnam in the first seven months of the year, equivalent to a value of $159 million, a massive increase of 2,412% in volume and 1,862% in value compared to the same period last year, simultaneously becoming the third-largest wheat supplier to Vietnam.

Despite the significant increase in volume and value, the price of wheat imported from this market has witnessed a sharp drop to $260 per ton, corresponding to a 22% decrease compared to the previous year.

Regarding Vietnam’s overall import situation, according to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, in July 2024, the country imported more than 316,000 tons of wheat, equivalent to more than $92 million, an increase of 9.9% in volume and 13.4% in value compared to June 2024. Cumulatively, in the first seven months of the year, Vietnam imported more than 3.44 million tons of wheat, with a value of over $954 per ton, an increase of 24.8% in volume but a decrease of 2.8% in value compared to the same period last year.

The average import price stood at $277 per ton, a decrease of 22%.

In terms of market share, Brazil is Vietnam’s largest supplier, with a volume of over 3.17 million tons, equivalent to $293.15 million, a significant increase of 348.9% in volume and 205.9% in value compared to the same period last year.

Australia comes in second, with over 737,000 tons, worth over $227.46 million, a decrease of 65.3% in volume and 69.1% in value compared to the first seven months of 2023.

In the Vietnamese market, wheat is hardly grown, so the country spends billions of dollars on imports each year. In 2023, Vietnam spent over $97 million on wheat imports from Canada, totaling 252,803 tons, a significant increase of 1,372% in volume and 1,142% in value compared to 2022. 

Worldwide, Russia currently dominates the wheat market, producing between 75 million and 85 million tons of wheat annually, equivalent to between 10 and 12% of global production, with half of that amount being exported. Russia alone supplies more than one-fifth of the wheat that feeds humanity and earns between $10 billion and $12 billion annually from wheat exports.

According to a report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) at the beginning of April, global wheat production for the 2023-2024 crop year is expected to fall short of consumption demand by about 12.6 million tons. This is also the fourth consecutive crop year with a supply-demand deficit in the wheat market.

With both rice and wheat production failing to keep pace with consumption, global food security remains under threat, as rice and wheat combined account for 57% of global cereal production.

Lower planting areas or unfavorable weather conditions in some countries, along with geopolitical risks, have significantly contributed to the upward trend in wheat prices over the past two months.

Based on calculations, with the current world population, wheat consumption is projected to exceed 800 million tons. The risk of a supply-demand deficit in the wheat market for five consecutive years is evident. Additionally, the International Grains Council (IGC) has downwardly adjusted the forecast for wheat stocks at the end of the 2023-2024 crop year by 3.6 million tons compared to the March estimate.

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