Gold prices continue to surge, with spot gold ending the week at $2,512.63 per ounce, while December 2024 gold futures shone at $2,546.30. On Tuesday (August 21), spot gold prices soared to a historic high of $2,531.75 per ounce.
In the domestic market, gold prices surged this week. SJC gold bars jumped by nearly VND 1 million per tael to VND 79-81 million per tael (buy-sell), while SJC 9999 gold rings held steady, inching up to VND 77-78.5 million per tael (buy-sell).
Spot Gold Price Movement
The gold market remains on a rollercoaster ride, with prices experiencing wild swings.
“Financial markets are reacting positively to messages from the US central bank, at least initially, with Powell’s comments suggesting that the time for policy adjustment is near,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader in New York. According to Wong, “Gold will continue to rise ahead of the Fed’s September meeting.”
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve recently stated that “the time has come” for the US central bank to lower interest rates, and inflation is approaching the 2% target. This is a clear indication that monetary policy easing is imminent.
A Kitco News survey revealed that most experts and investors believe that gold prices will reach new historic highs next week.
“Spot gold prices on Tuesday hit a record high of nearly $2,531.75 and have held steady since. The weekly low was on Thursday, around $2,471. The US dollar generally weakened. Gold may reach new highs, but momentum indicators are stretched, and the short-term price trend is sideways … Initial support is likely in the $2,460-70 range,” said Marc Chandler, Chief Executive Officer of Bannockburn Global Forex.
“It will rise. There’s no point in going against the momentum,” said Adam Button, currency strategy director at Forexlive.com.
Meanwhile, Darin Newsom, senior analyst at Barchart.com, predicted a downward trend in gold prices in the coming days. “I will maintain my view on this trend for another week based on the idea that the short-term trend in December gold futures (daily closing price chart) is downward,” said Newsom. He predicted that gold would hover around $2,493 in the near term.
James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, also anticipated a downward trend in gold prices next week. “I think we’ll see some profit-taking and retracement pushing prices below $2,500, but I don’t think any downward trend will last at this point,” Stanley said. “It’s a retracement, not a reversal.”
Kevin Grady, President of Phoenix Futures and Options, noted that the gold market is focused on the Fed’s expected move to cut interest rates and its justification for doing so.
“They’re talking about cutting interest rates,” Grady said. “Now we’re starting to see that there’s a 55% chance they could cut by 50 basis points instead of 25, but overall, rates are coming down. Central banks are buying gold. So, I think that’s the key to the market at the moment. The environment for gold is ‘ripe and fresh.’ I think gold’s new highs are ahead.”
Grady analyzed that gold prices are rising even in a high-interest-rate environment, so they are sure to climb further as rates start to fall. “I think now is the perfect time. It’s like a perfect storm in a positive direction for gold,” he predicted. He forecast that gold prices would hover around $2,500 before the September meeting, after which it would be a floor.
Grady believed that the downward revision of US employment data, with over 800,000 fewer jobs added in the past 12 months, reinforced the Fed’s determination to cut rates. “The Fed should have cut rates at the previous meeting by 25 percentage points,” Grady said. “It’s hard to immediately cut rates by 50 basis points. I think it should be done step by step. But when the US market weakens, many global markets also weaken. So, I think rates will come down in September.”
According to Grady, the rate cut is not the end of the story. However, as the economy is still facing high inflation overall, and lowering rates could exacerbate these pressures, a 50-basis-point reduction is unlikely.
This week, 12 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News survey, with most predicting that gold prices would surpass last week’s record high. Among them, seven analysts (58%) predicted that gold prices would rise next week, two analysts (17%) forecast a decline, and three analysts (25%) expected prices to stabilize.
Meanwhile, 225 retail investors on Wall Street participated in the survey and were more optimistic about gold’s prospects. Specifically, 146 traders, or 65%, expected gold prices to rise next week, 41 others, or 18%, predicted a decline, and the remaining 38 traders, representing 17%, anticipated stable prices.
Kitco News survey on gold price expectations for the week of August 26-30
Next week, market participants will focus on US inflation data, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July being the highlight. The market will also await data on July’s Durable Goods Orders and the US Consumer Confidence Index for August, weekly unemployment claims, and preliminary figures for US second-quarter GDP growth.
Reference: Kitco News
Market Update on February 2nd: Oil, Copper, Iron & Steel, Rubber, and Sugar Prices Decline, Gold Surges to Almost 1-Month High.
At the end of the trading session on February 1st, the prices of oil, copper, iron and steel, rubber, and sugar all dropped, while natural gas hit a nine-month low and gold reached its highest point in nearly a month.
Market Update on February 3rd: Crude oil, gold, copper, iron and steel, and rubber all decline together.
At the close of trading on February 2nd, the prices of oil, gold, copper, steel, rubber, and coffee all saw a simultaneous decrease, with iron ore hitting a two-week low.
Weekend Ending Sees Significant Gold SJC Price Drop
After surging to nearly 79 million dong per tael on February 2nd, the price of SJC gold is now plummeting towards the 78 million dong per tael mark this weekend.
