According to businesses and rice experts, despite the impact of Super Storm No. 3 (Yagi), the ability to supply rice to the domestic market remains stable with steady prices. The rice export market also looks promising as Indonesia has just announced a tender for 450,000 tons of rice for September – the highest invitation to bid ever.
Spreading False Information
According to a survey by our reporters, rice market transactions have increased over the past week due to the demand from the Northern market after the storm, including commercial customers and orders for relief and charity.
In the Mekong Delta, IR50404 rice is priced at 12,800 – 13,000 VND/kg; common white rice is 17,000 VND/kg; and fragrant rice ranges from 18,000 – 21,000 VND/kg. In Ho Chi Minh City, wholesale prices of common rice varieties range from 14,000 – 16,000 VND/kg; lightly fragrant rice is 17,000 – 18,000 VND/kg; while the special ST25 rice variety increased by about 2,000 VND/kg compared to August, mainly due to a lack of supply as farmers prefer to plant other rice varieties with better economic efficiency.
On September 16, Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh, Director of Phuc Thanh IV Production and Trading Company Limited (Vinh Long province), said that compared to two weeks ago, rice prices have slightly decreased due to the harvest season in the Central Highlands, Central regions, and some areas in the Mekong Delta. However, in recent days, the amount of rice sold to organizations and individuals for charitable purposes to support those affected by natural disasters has increased. “For these orders, we offer discounted prices, meaning we sell at no profit or even a slight loss to provide support. Not only my company, but most other suppliers do the same,” Mr. Thanh affirmed.
However, there are accounts on social media that take advantage of natural disasters to spread misinformation about food shortages to cause public concern. For example, a personal page of TK – a future forecaster with over 210,000 followers on Facebook – caused worry by writing, “The fields that are about to be harvested are flooded… There are many worrying things ahead.” This person even spread rumors about a possible ban on rice exports in September, causing further anxiety among the public. In reality, according to our reporters’ findings, these status updates are made by unscrupulous merchants who aim to profit by selling rice at inflated prices. When our reporter contacted a account named HTX rice storage… which posted information about rising rice prices due to inflation, we were offered ST21 rice at nearly 29,000 VND/kg and ST25 rice at over 36,000 VND/kg for customers in Ho Chi Minh City, along with a commitment to the cheapest market price and rice packaged with vacuum sealing to prevent issues like insects, mildew, and mold…
No Need to Stockpile Rice
A representative of a rice company in Ho Chi Minh City shared that many customers saw the information online and contacted them to buy rice for storage. “My customers in Hanoi are buying more, mainly to prevent interrupted transportation. For customers who want to stock up for the long term, we advise them not to and recommend only storing a moderate amount,” the representative frankly stated.
The reason given by this representative is the concern over potential requests for returns later on, which can be very troublesome. “After a short time, they will realize that storing rice is unnecessary and ask to return it due to quality issues. We have experienced this during the COVID-19 pandemic,” he said.
Mr. Lam Anh Tu, Director of Hoa Nang Agricultural Products Joint Stock Company (Ho Chi Minh City), affirmed that there is no rice shortage, and he is currently running a promotion of buying 5 kg and getting 1 kg free to sell the previous season’s rice and prepare for the new crop, which will be harvested in the next two months.
According to this entrepreneur, due to natural disasters, the company’s rice consumption has slightly increased by 5%-10% for premium rice. Hoa Nang rice is grown in the shrimp-rice fields, with only one crop per year, so the company has to store it to sell throughout the year. Therefore, Mr. Tu suggested that families should only store rice for up to one month. “Vietnam has rice harvested all year round, so consumers don’t need to stockpile. Moreover, storing rice at home will encounter problems such as insects, mildew, mold, and rodent infestation,” Mr. Tu analyzed.
Vietnam has no rice shortage. In the picture: A business brings its “rice warehouse” to an export fair. Photo: AN NA
Ensuring Export Targets
Dr. Dao Minh So, Head of the Department of Crop Breeding and Genetics at the Southern Institute of Agricultural Sciences, hypothesized that if Storm Yagi caused 100% damage to the crops of 1 million households, equivalent to 4 million people, Vietnam’s plan to export 8 million tons of rice this year is still feasible.
Accordingly, the affected population would need government food support for three months, requiring 1.2 million tons of rice (10 kg/person/month), which is entirely within the capacity of Southern farmers. “I just visited farms in Binh Thuan, where farmers used to grow dragon fruit but have now switched to rice on a large scale. In many areas, farmers have taken the initiative in irrigation and have switched to growing three rice crops a year in 2024. If there is a market for their produce, the rice-growing area in the South this year could increase by hundreds of thousands of hectares because people can calculate the profits that rice brings,” Dr. So affirmed.
According to Dr. So, natural disasters have impacted domestic rice production and consumption, but flexible and cautious measures are needed to avoid affecting the interests of farmers. “Vietnam does not have a rice shortage. Do not believe the false information spread online,” Dr. So advised.
Prof. Dr. Bui Chi Buu, former Deputy Director of the Institute of Agricultural Sciences of Vietnam, also stated that although there are no official figures on the damage in rice-growing areas affected by Storm No. 3, the contribution of the Northern regions to the country’s total rice output is quite low. Therefore, the rice supply from the key producing regions is sufficient to make up for any shortfall. Moreover, this is the time of the autumn-winter crop, not the main production season. Therefore, the information on social media about Vietnam facing a rice shortage and the risk of rice shortage is baseless.
Exports reach nearly USD 3.8 billion
According to customs data, in August, Vietnamese enterprises exported 837,000 tons of rice, earning over USD 500 million. In the first eight months of the year, Vietnam exported 6.06 million tons of rice, with a turnover of nearly USD 3.8 billion, up 4.7% in volume and 20.5% in value compared to the same period last year.
Prof. Dr. Bui Chi Buu shared that the export market from now until the end of the year will be influenced by the two major importing countries, the Philippines and Indonesia, as well as the possibility of India returning to the rice export market. “India is likely to ’empty its warehouses’ by the end of this year after a year of banning exports because rice cannot be stored for too long,” Prof. Dr. Bui Chi Buu predicted. However, experts and businesses agree that India will carefully manage the situation to avoid a deep drop in export prices, as it will also affect them.
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