An impressive turnaround unfolded during the futures expiry session. It’s unclear whether this was a pull-up effect, but the recovery was widespread, well-led, and supported by strong liquidity.
According to regulations, the final settlement price is calculated from the last 15 minutes of the continuous matching period and the ATC session. However, the market recovered in the early afternoon, just a few minutes after the session started. The rally was relentless, successful until the end, and supported by breadth. Even if there was a pull-up effect, such effectiveness is very positive, indicating that open trading has returned.
The order placement style and size always reflect the risk appetite the most accurately. The aggressive buying style witnessed today demonstrates a high level of proactiveness. The broad participation also indicates a similar mindset, even though individual stocks recovered at different paces. The improved afternoon liquidity suggests a good fit in terms of volume, range, and price direction. That’s the real meaning of “wick-pulling candles.”
Before today’s reversal, the market went through a narrow-range session with minimal liquidity (12.5 trillion VND in matched orders), and this morning’s liquidity was the lowest in eight sessions. The only issue this morning was that stocks had a slightly wider downward range; if it had been narrower, the signal would have been stronger. Nonetheless, the outcome was still positive. It seems that money has been waiting for the October expiry to pass before taking action.
Technically, today’s reversal session is a positive sign, and the uptrend since August for VNI remains intact. If the market continues to rise on the last trading day of the week, there is a high probability that the index will form another higher low. Such a technical pattern will attract attention, and as long as the downtrend becomes shorter in time, narrower in range, and closer to the resistance zone, the chances of breaking through it increase.
However, it’s important to note that the index has its own story, and a breakout would be ideal as it would create broad consensus and change the mindset of conservative investors. Opportunities still lie in specific stocks, and even in the best-case scenario, the chances are not equal. Therefore, it’s crucial to focus on your portfolio first. Stocks that have recently experienced small adjustments within their typical range of volatility are strong. Those creating bottom zones are also worth considering. It only takes a few more sessions to boost morale and eliminate the lethargy, despondency, and pessimism of the past few days!
Today is the futures expiry, and F2 maintained an excessively wide basis (averaging nearly 8 points). The F2 term is still very long, so shorts are unlikely to benefit from basis relaxation. F1, on the other hand, doesn’t need to consider the basis, making it easier to set stop losses.
The initial slide didn’t offer a standard setup as VN30 mostly fluctuated below 1359.xx, quite far off, and at a slow pace. A better opportunity presented itself when VN30 broke below 1353.xx; if this level was breached, the next supports were 1348.xx and 1341.xx, and stop losses for shorts could be set according to VN30 when it rebounded above 1348.xx. In the early afternoon, VN30 broke below 1348.xx, and the basis turned positive, after which the index rebounded above 1348.xx. That was the point to close the position. The subsequent rebound again created a good setup for longs, with stop losses set according to VN30 if it fell back below 1348.xx. The target for closing half the position was VN30 reaching 1353.xx. The rest rose beautifully to 1359.xx.
Today’s F2 performance indicates a considerable expectation for the underlying market, even as VNI and VN30 plummeted this morning. The inflow of money pushing prices up had a positive effect, changing the psychology of despondency that has prevailed in recent days. The opportunity for the indices to retest the peak zones remains. The strategy is to be flexible with longs and shorts, prioritizing longs, and paying attention to the basis.
VN30 closed today at 1362.89. Tomorrow’s nearest resistance is at 1368, 1376, 1380, 1387, 1396, and 1401. Supports are at 1358, 1348, 1341, and 1333.
“Stock Market Blog” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The views, assessments, and investment advice are solely those of the individual investor, and VnEconomy respects the author’s perspective and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the published assessments and investment advice.
