“Central Bank’s Rate Hike: USD Surges Past VND 26,500 at Banks, Flirting with Regulated Ceiling”

The intense competition in the market has forced banks to refrain from increasing selling prices any further. However, their significant surge in buying rates reveals the persistent pressure of exchange rates.

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The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced today (August 21) that the central exchange rate has been set at 25,273 VND per USD, an increase of 10 VND from the previous day, marking a new peak. This is the fourth consecutive day of increases for the central exchange rate since the beginning of the week, with a total rise of 24 VND. With a 5% fluctuation band, commercial banks are allowed to trade the USD within the range of 24,009 – 26,537 VND/USD.

The State Bank of Vietnam’s Trading Centre also adjusted the buying and selling rates accordingly, now at 24,060 – 26,486 VND/USD.

This morning, banks simultaneously pushed the selling price of USD above 26,500 VND. At 10 am, Vietcombank, the bank with the largest foreign currency transactions, quoted the USD buying and selling rates at 26,166 – 26,536 VND/USD, an increase of 36 VND in both directions compared to yesterday’s survey. Since the beginning of the year, the USD rate at Vietcombank has increased by about 3.8%.

VietinBank increased the buying price by 69 VND and the selling price by 35 VND, trading at 26,210 – 26,536 VND/USD. BIDV also raised their buying and selling rates by 36 VND, reaching 26,536 VND/USD for selling.

Other major banks, including Techcombank, ACB, MB, Eximbank, and Sacombank, have also uniformly increased their USD selling price to 26,536 VND/USD, just below the permitted trading ceiling.

Both private and state-owned banks are now listing exchange rates at record highs, just one VND below the allowable trading limit. Unable to further increase their selling rates, many banks have significantly increased their buying rates, indicating that exchange rate pressure remains high.

In the interbank market, the exchange rate at the close of August 20 was 26,400 VND/USD, a substantial increase of 72 VND compared to the previous day’s rate of 19/08.

In the black market, the USD remains at a record high. A survey at 10:00 am showed that money changers were buying and selling USD at 26,520 – 26,600 VND/USD, unchanged from yesterday’s figures.

The USD/VND exchange rate is facing multiple pressures due to the State Bank of Vietnam’s loose monetary policy and the US dollar’s recovery in the international market. Previously, the USD/VND rate had increased by 3% in the first half of 2025, despite an 11% decline in the US dollar in the global market.

In a recently published report, MBS Securities forecasted a potential decrease in the USD exchange rate by year-end as the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates. However, internal factors will continue to exert upward pressure on the exchange rate, including the persistent interest rate differential between USD and VND, even if the Fed lowers its interest rate to 4%.

Additional pressure stems from larger import demands due to the 0% tax rate on goods from the US, while exports are likely to slow down, narrowing the trade surplus. Moreover, FDI inflows may decelerate as investors await clearer information on tariffs, and the gold price differential between the domestic and global markets persists amid rising gold prices.

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