What New Heights Will Domestic Gold Prices Reach?

Gold Price Continues to Soar: Experts Predict Further Gains

Last week, gold prices in Vietnam reached unprecedented highs, closing the week at 125.6 – 126.6 million VND per tael for gold bars and 118.8 – 121.8 million VND per tael for gold rings.

Financial and banking expert, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, predicts that gold prices will continue to rise, potentially reaching the 130 million VND per tael mark.

Between now and the end of 2025, both global and domestic gold prices are expected to surge due to four main reasons. Firstly, the US dollar, as measured by the USD Index, is currently weak and losing value relative to other currencies.

Secondly, the US trade tariffs have pushed many countries into crisis, and the issue remains a hot topic.

Thirdly, geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and the Middle East persist and continue to evolve.

Fourthly, the US economy is facing uncertainties. The Federal Reserve has not decided to cut interest rates yet as they are concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation.

” All these factors are driving up global gold prices. Although there may be temporary dips due to profit-taking by investors, the overall trend is still upward. Gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year, while domestic prices may surpass 130 million VND per tael ,” predicted Dr. Hieu.

Sharing this view, Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of Finance and Banking at Nguyen Trai University, also believes that domestic gold prices could exceed 130 million VND per tael.

According to Mr. Huy, with global gold prices currently hovering around $3,370 per ounce, they are expected to continue rising and could reach new highs of $3,600 – $3,700 per ounce. This would push domestic gold prices beyond the 130 million VND per tael mark.

Mr. Huy also outlined four reasons for the strong gold price performance. Firstly, markets are heavily betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, putting downward pressure on the US dollar and bond yields. This makes gold, a non-yielding asset, extremely attractive.

Secondly, global geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Iran conflicts, and potential flashpoints in East Asia and territorial disputes, are driving safe-haven demand for gold.

Thirdly, central banks around the world continue to buy gold. Countries like China, Russia, and Turkey are net buyers of gold each month, reducing their reliance on the US dollar and boosting their strategic reserves.

Fourthly, defensive investing and asset reallocation are back in vogue as uncertainties rise. The psychology of investing in gold as a defensive asset is regaining prominence, replacing cryptocurrencies, stocks, or real estate.

” This is not just an ordinary fluctuation but a clear indication of a major shift in the global financial system and in investors’ asset allocation strategies ,” said Mr. Huy.

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan from the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City also expressed his opinion that several factors could further boost gold prices. The US labor market is weaker than expected, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut and driving up gold prices.

According to Dr. Huan, the US economy is showing signs of weakness, and the impact of tariffs and policies implemented by President Donald Trump has raised expectations for an early Fed rate cut to support the economy. This would cause gold prices to soar.

” It’s challenging to predict gold prices at the moment as they fluctuate within the $3,300-3,400 per ounce range. To establish a new upward trend, prices need to surpass the $3,500 per ounce level. Currently, gold prices are moving sideways within a wide range, meaning that both downward and upward movements can be sharp ,” stated Dr. Huan.

Domestic gold prices often follow global trends, so they may continue to rise in the coming period.

Expert Tran Duy Phuong also predicted that it’s only a matter of time before domestic gold prices hit new records.

Mr. Phuong analyzed that global gold prices are in a corrective phase, likely heading towards the $3,400 per ounce level before potentially retreating. However, domestic gold prices, in addition to being influenced by global prices, are also impacted by the lack of additional supply from gold material imports for production. As a result, prices are unlikely to drop significantly and narrow the gap with global prices.

” Domestic gold prices are somewhat independent and only partially follow global prices. They are influenced by domestic demand, while the market faces a shortage of supply. Therefore, even if global gold prices drop sharply, say by $100 or 2.6 million VND per tael, the decrease in domestic prices would only be around 400,000 – 500,000 VND per tael. However, if global prices surge, domestic prices will immediately respond with more significant increases due to high market demand ,” explained Mr. Phuong.

Need for a Gold Exchange

Given the significant gap between domestic and global gold prices, Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy shared that the government is considering allowing the establishment of a gold exchange to enhance transparency, competition, and align Vietnamese gold prices with global rates.

” This would be a turning point in effectively regulating the market, reducing speculation, and protecting legitimate investors ,” stated Mr. Huy.

In terms of investment strategy, Mr. Huy advised that gold should only be a small part of one’s portfolio. Investing in gold is not a get-rich-quick scheme but rather a tool for risk management.

” Gold prices reflect global uncertainties, but it shouldn’t be the sole focus of your financial aspirations. In today’s rapidly changing world, the winner is not the one with the most assets but the one who understands the market and their actions to create the most positive value for society. So, don’t go ‘all in’ on gold at peak prices, especially with the SJC gold brand, which has a significant price premium ,” cautioned Mr. Huy.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu also recommended a mid to long-term investment approach for gold, as short-term trading in the current volatile environment carries significant risks.

When gold prices surge, investors tend to take profits, causing short-term corrections. Therefore, a long-term hold aligns better with gold’s nature as a defensive asset with lower risks.

Dr. Hieu emphasized that each investment channel has its strengths. Decisions about investing in gold, stocks, real estate, or depositing in banks should be based on both quantitative and qualitative assessments, not impulsive actions.

For the current period, Dr. Hieu suggested a balanced asset allocation. Investors should keep about one-third of their funds in cash at banks to manage risks and maintain flexibility. The remaining funds should be evenly distributed between gold and stocks, two channels currently attracting significant market interest.