Q3 2025 Profit Forecast for 13 Leading Banks: Vietcombank, VietinBank, BIDV, Techcombank, VPBank, and More

MBS Securities has released its Q3/2025 profit forecasts for several Vietnamese enterprises.

For the banking sector, the after-tax profit of listed banks is projected to rise by 21.5% year-on-year in Q3/2025, an improvement from the 18.7% growth in Q2/2025. Banks such as HDBank, Techcombank, BIDV, VPBank, LPBank, and VietinBank are expected to see robust profit growth, driven by strong credit expansion.

The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio across the industry is anticipated to remain below 2%, while the loan loss reserve (LLR) ratio is expected to stay around 80%, indicating a slight improvement in asset quality compared to the previous quarter.

As of August 29, 2025, the total credit balance of the banking system has increased by 11.82% compared to the end of 2024 and by 20% year-on-year. This strong growth momentum is expected to continue in Q3/2025, with an estimated increase of 14.8% from the beginning of the year and 4.6% from the previous quarter.

According to MBS, the low-interest-rate environment remains a key driver of credit growth, particularly as retail credit shows signs of catching up with corporate credit. This is attributed to the recovery in consumer lending and home loans.

Private joint-stock banks are outpacing state-owned banks in credit growth, with projected growth rates of 18% and 12%, respectively, by the end of Q3/2025. Banks like VPBank, HDBank, LPBank, and Techcombank continue to maintain strong growth trajectories.

Net interest margin (NIM) is expected to remain stable or slightly increase in the second half of the year, supported by low lending rates and moderate funding pressures. Despite deposit growth of 9.6% since the beginning of the year, it remains lower than credit growth. Banks are focusing on medium- to long-term lending and increasing the proportion of non-term deposits (CASA) to enhance NIM.

MBS forecasts that Vietcombank will lead with pre-tax profit of VND 11,876 billion in Q3/2025, up 11% year-on-year. The bank’s after-tax profit for the quarter is expected to reach approximately VND 9,477 billion.

Several banks are projected to achieve significant profit growth compared to the same period last year, including VietinBank (+44%), VPBank (+41%), and VIB (+30%), among others.