Global Gold Prices Surge Past $4,000/Ounce: What’s Driving the Historic Rally?

At the time of the survey, the spot gold price reached a record high of $4,035 per ounce, marking a new milestone for the precious metal in the international market.

According to analysts, this development reflects the trend of seeking safe-haven assets amid ongoing global economic and political uncertainties. It also indicates expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon continue cutting interest rates to support growth.

Since the beginning of 2025, the spot gold price has surged approximately 53%, following a 27% increase in 2024, making it one of the best-performing assets globally.

Tai Wong, an independent metal trader in New York, expressed optimism: “The market is eyeing the next major milestone of $5,000 per ounce, as the Fed is likely to continue lowering rates.”

He noted that while short-term fluctuations, such as ceasefires in the Middle East or Ukraine, may occur, fundamental factors like high public debt, diversification of reserves, and a weak U.S. dollar will continue to support gold prices in the medium term.

Gold’s rally is driven by a combination of factors: expectations of Fed rate cuts in the final two months of the year; fiscal and political instability as the U.S. government enters its seventh day of a shutdown; inflows into gold ETFs; net central bank purchases; and a weaker U.S. dollar making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. The market is pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in October, with another potential reduction in December.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, highlighted that heightened uncertainty is a natural catalyst for gold’s rise.

“Both the low-interest-rate environment and the U.S. government shutdown favor gold. However, profit-taking around $4,000 could pose short-term adjustment risks.”

He also noted that the FOMO effect—fear of missing out—is driving investment flows into gold.

In the medium term, major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their 2026 gold price forecasts, citing lower interest rates, stable ETF inflows, and central bank purchases as factors sustaining high prices. Alongside gold, spot silver rose 1.3% to $48.44 per ounce, platinum gained 2.4% to $1,657.33, and palladium increased 2.3% to $1,368.68.

Gold’s 2025 rally reflects global investors’ defensive stance amid fiscal risks in major economies, geopolitical instability, and a return to monetary easing.

While many experts caution about potential short-term corrections around $4,000, gold’s long-term outlook remains positive and stable, at least until the Fed completes its rate-cutting cycle.

Domestically, SJC gold bars are trading between VND 139.4–141.4 million per tael. Meanwhile, Bao Tin Minh Chau’s gold rings range from VND 137.7–140.7 million per tael; DOJI and PNJ list theirs at VND 136.2–139.2 million per tael.