VPBank Experts: Market Corrections Are Opportunities, Except for Overvaluation and Major Crashes

VPBankS experts assert that Vietnam's stock market outlook remains robust in the medium term, with no significant concerns. This optimism is underpinned by the country's sustained high economic growth rate, ranging between 8% and 10%, coupled with a manageable inflation rate of approximately 3%.

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After reaching a new peak, Vietnam’s stock market has retraced and is now seeking equilibrium. Speaking at the 2026 Business Forum themed “New Growth Spaces: Opportunities and Strategies,” organized by BizLive on October 22, Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc, Digital Business Director at VPBankS, attributed the recent short-term market correction to profit-taking by investors following substantial gains since early 2025.

Since the beginning of 2025, Vietnam’s stock market has surged over 30%, ranking among the world’s top two performers. Mr. Duc identified two scenarios warranting concern: (1) excessive overheating driving valuations to unsustainable levels; and (2) disruptive “collapse” events. “Absent these scenarios, corrections represent opportunities,” he emphasized.

Currently, no indicators suggest the emergence of these risks. According to VPBankS experts, the forward P/E ratio remains at 12x, 20-30% below other emerging markets, maintaining Vietnam’s attractiveness for investors. Recent market declines have already prompted renewed foreign inflows.

For 2026, robust economic growth expectations point to a projected 15% market expansion. However, investors should temper excessive optimism. “Historically, 30%+ annual gains are typically short-lived, with markets reverting to mean growth rates,” Mr. Duc noted.

Over the medium term, Vietnam’s market fundamentals remain solid, supported by 8-10% GDP growth and 3% inflation, sustaining 13-15% annual equity returns. “While profit-taking could trigger a 5% pullback, such dips create entry points for long-term investors,” he added.

Post-upgrade, VPBankS estimates $1.6-2.0 billion in passive fund inflows, with an additional $5-6 billion from active strategies deploying capital at opportune valuations.

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