The downward trend of the US dollar in the free market shows no signs of abating, with each USD currently selling at 27,260 VND, 1,100 VND higher than the rate at commercial banks. In early November, this gap widened to 1,700 VND.
US Dollar Plummets in the Black Market
Specifically, at 3 PM today, the black market USD rate was trading between 27,130 and 27,260 VND/USD, up by approximately 40 VND from the morning session’s opening rate, yet still 850 VND below its peak.
Today, the State Bank of Vietnam set the central exchange rate of VND to USD at 25,154 VND/USD, a 1 VND decrease from the previous session. Commercial banks also reduced their selling rates by 1 VND.
For instance, Vietcombank listed the USD buying and selling rates at 26,141 – 26,411 VND/USD, 1 VND lower in both directions compared to the previous session’s close. Eximbank reduced its buying rate by 40 VND and its selling rate by 1 VND, bringing the greenback’s rate at this bank to 26,120 – 26,411 VND/USD.
Globally, the USD index slightly declined by 0.14 points to 98.65 after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5–3.75% annually, as anticipated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that future adjustments will depend on new data, especially since the Fed has reduced rates by a total of 75 basis points since September and 175 basis points year-over-year.
The Fed’s continued rate cuts are expected to ease pressure on the Vietnamese dong in the coming period. Illustrative image |
According to Mr. Trần Duy Phương, a gold market expert, the sharp decline in the black market USD rate is not unusual but reflects the seasonal supply-demand dynamics of the foreign exchange market. In December and January each year, remittance flows into Vietnam typically surge, significantly increasing the supply of free-floating USD. With supply rising sharply while payment demand remains stable, prices in the unofficial market naturally cool down.
Mr. Phương further emphasized that the weakening of the free-floating USD also indicates reduced speculative activity. The narrowing gap with bank exchange rates makes holding USD outside the banking system less attractive, contributing to a more stable market.
Domestic Exchange Rates Cool Down, Pressure Eases Toward Year-End
According to MB Securities, by the end of November, both the central exchange rate and the interbank rate increased slightly by 0.2% from the previous month, reaching 25,155 VND/USD (up 3.3% year-to-date) and 26,365 VND/USD (up 3.6% year-to-date), respectively.
The firm noted that one factor contributing to this rise was the increased USD demand in November as the State Treasury resumed purchasing USD from commercial banks for the first time since late June. In November, the Treasury conducted two foreign currency purchase sessions totaling 250 million USD, bringing the year-to-date purchase volume to 2.14 billion USD (surpassing the 2.08 billion USD purchased in 2024).
However, the increase in the USD/VND exchange rate was minimal, as the VND was supported by the positive interest rate differential between VND and USD. Interbank interest rates in November remained high, exceeding 4%, and even reached a three-year peak of 7.5% in early December.
Economists share this view, stating that the Fed’s additional 25 basis point cut, bringing the total reduction this year to 75 basis points, will help alleviate pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate toward year-end. Additionally, domestic USD supply is expected to be more abundant in Q4, as this is the peak export season and remittance inflows to Vietnam typically increase significantly at year-end.
THÙY LINH
– 16:18 11/12/2025
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