Floods, Disease Outbreaks: Will There Be a Pork Shortage by Year-End?

Experts assert that businesses and farmers have been proactive in restocking, making a pork shortage unlikely.

Mr. Nguyễn Kim Đoán, Vice Chairman of the Đồng Nai Livestock Association, stated that the pork supply in the Southern market is sufficient to meet consumer demand during Tết. “Đồng Nai alone has over 5 million pigs, accounting for one-fifth of the national herd. Other regions contribute approximately 10 million pigs. Additionally, ‘gột’ pigs (purchased at 80-100kg and fattened further before sale) can increase total output by 10-15%, ensuring ample supply for the Southeast region and neighboring provinces during Tết,” Mr. Đoán explained.

Beyond pork, Mr. Đoán noted that Đồng Nai’s poultry population of 40 million birds remains stable, further securing food supply during the year-end peak.

“Major farms in Đồng Nai and the Southeast have been restocking for 2-3 months in preparation for Tết, ensuring a continuous supply of pork and poultry,” he added.

Similarly, Mr. Dương Tất Thắng, Director of the Livestock Department (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), noted that despite nationwide challenges due to storms, businesses and farmers have actively restocked. The ministry directed immediate production resumption post-storms. Disease control has also been largely successful.

As of December 25, the national pig population exceeds 30 million, a 0.1% increase year-on-year. Provinces like Tây Ninh (+23.5%), Sơn La (+10.5%), and Đồng Nai (+3.7%) have shown growth through biosecure farming and supply chain integration.

Storm-affected provinces like Khánh Hòa, Quảng Trị, Phú Thọ, and Hà Nội saw declines of 3-20%, but these are insufficient to disrupt national supply-demand balance.

“With over 30 million pigs and 584 million poultry (up 2.9%), supply is robust for Tết, meeting pre-, during, and post-holiday demand,” Mr. Thắng concluded.

Pork Prices Surge

Since November, pork prices have risen sharply, reaching 70,000 VND/kg, a 25,000 VND increase.

Mr. Nguyễn Thế Chinh, Head of Ninh Bình Livestock Market (former Hà Nam), reported prices rising from 56,000-60,000 VND/kg in November to 70,000 VND/kg for grade-1 pork.

“Year-end demand typically drives prices up. Traders aim higher, but recent rapid increases slowed sales, prompting slight adjustments. Prices stabilize around 70,000 VND/kg,” Mr. Chinh observed.

Hưng Yên leads at 71,000 VND/kg, followed by Tuyên Quang, Cao Bằng, Thái Nguyên, Quảng Ninh, Bắc Ninh, Hà Nội, Hải Phòng, Ninh Bình, Lào Cai, and Phú Thọ at 70,000 VND/kg.

Lạng Sơn, Điện Biên, and Sơn La hold at 69,000 VND/kg, with Lai Châu the lowest at 68,000 VND/kg. Northern prices range from 68,000-71,000 VND/kg.

Central prices also rose: Thanh Hóa and Nghệ An at 70,000 VND/kg; Hà Tĩnh at 68,000 VND/kg; Quảng Trị, Huế, and Gia Lai at 66,000 VND/kg; Đắk Lắk at 65,000 VND/kg; Khánh Hòa and Lâm Đồng at 64,000 VND/kg. Đà Nẵng and Quảng Ngãi remain at 66,000 VND/kg.

Southern prices peaked at 65,000 VND/kg in Đồng Nai and Ho Chi Minh City, with Tây Ninh at 64,000 VND/kg. An Giang and Cần Thơ rose to 62,000 VND/kg, while Cà Mau, Đồng Tháp, and Vĩnh Long held steady at 62,000-63,000 VND/kg.

Mr. Trần Kim Đoán attributed rising prices to farmers holding pigs for higher year-end prices. Pigs now weigh 130kg instead of 100-110kg, increasing profits.

He noted that ‘gột’ pigs, fattened from 90-100kg, yield over 1 million VND profit per pig, though this practice reduces short-term supply, further driving prices up.

“A 100kg pig can reach 130kg in a month, adding nearly 2 million VND in value, with 1.4 million VND profit after costs,” Mr. Đoán estimated.

Mr. Dương Tất Thắng predicted continued price rises in storm-affected Central and Northern regions, while the South’s ample supply keeps prices stable.

“Prices of 60,000-65,000 VND/kg balance farmer profits, consumer affordability, and regulatory control,” he concluded.