The Era of Real Estate Speculation and Flipping is Over

According to new regulations, real estate identification will be mandatory from March 1, 2026, serving as a crucial foundation for implementing tax management policies and curbing speculation and short-term trading.

Specifically, each property, including single-family homes, apartments, and project units, will have a unique electronic identification code within the housing and real estate market information system and database.

EZ Property CEO Pham Duc Toan stated that through identification data, authorities can determine how many properties an individual owns. This will serve as the basis for imposing taxes on second homes or capital gains tax based on ownership duration (shorter holding periods incur higher taxes) to reduce speculative trading and price manipulation.

Additionally, 2026 will present challenges for speculative investors but opportunities for mid- to long-term investors with a focus on safety and sustainability.

Pham Duc Toan noted that this year, projects linked to major infrastructure developments will benefit significantly as key transportation projects are accelerated. Strategic transportation axes such as ring roads, urban railways, and river bridges are expected to drive growth in residential and commercial service sectors.

For land investors, Dinh Minh Tuan, Director of Batdongsan in the Southern region, advises thorough evaluation of local potential, infrastructure, and economic development plans before making decisions.

Tuan also emphasizes that investors should consider factors affecting land prices, such as location, legal status, area, and surrounding amenities, while adopting a long-term vision and avoiding short-term trading to minimize risks.

Not only land auctions but also the condominium market is expected to be less conducive to short-term trading this year. Experts note that favorable conditions for short-term traders in previous periods, such as limited supply, FOMO (fear of missing out), soaring prices, and low interest rates, are shifting in the current context.

Tran Minh Tien, Director of Market Research & Customer Insights at One Mount Group, observes that the market is entering a “cleansing phase” after a period of strong speculative capital inflows since mid-year. Rising interest rates since the fourth quarter of 2025 and slowing price growth have directly impacted investor sentiment.

Tien assesses that after a period of low deposit rates, there has been a reversal since October last year, with many banks increasing rates by 1-2%. As of November 21, credit growth was 16%, while deposits grew only 12% compared to the end of 2024. Simultaneously, many housing loans disbursed in late 2023 and early 2024 are entering their principal repayment grace period, leading to a sharp increase in debt obligations.

Investor caution is evident as condominium transactions declined toward the end of last year.

A One Mount Group report indicates that Hanoi recorded approximately 6,100 real estate transactions in November 2025, an 18% decrease from the previous month. The sharpest decline was in the condominium segment, with around 3,100 secondary transactions, down 22% month-over-month.

Over 75% of housing transactions come from buyers purchasing their second property or more

In reality, investment demand dominated the housing market in 2025, with over 75% of transactions involving buyers purchasing their second property or more, according to the Brokerage Association.

In a recent market report, the Vietnam Real Estate Brokerage Association (VARS) noted that 2025 saw the strongest growth in housing supply, particularly high-end condominiums. Nationwide, over 128,000 new units were launched, an 88% increase from 2024—the highest in six years. Condominiums accounted for most of the supply, with over 80,000 new units, double that of 2024.

Regarding absorption rates, Le Dinh Chung, a representative of VARS’s Market Research and Evaluation Council, stated that the rate was approximately 68%, equivalent to nearly 88,000 transactions in 2025. In the first three quarters, many high-priced projects maintained positive absorption rates due to increased investment and actual demand. From the fourth quarter, this rate declined as new supply surged and interest rates rose, making investors more cautious.

“Over 75% of housing transactions come from buyers purchasing their second property or more, with about 10% being short-term leveraged investors,” the VARS report stated.

Amid a slowing market, Chung observes that some investors who bought during the FOMO-driven boom are now selling at a loss. This phenomenon is concentrated in areas where prices rose too quickly, indicating that the condominium market is entering a phase of intense filtering as short-term traders restructure their portfolios.