Durable perseverance
In 2023, the economy grew throughout the year with an estimated 5.05%, lower than the set target but among the highest in the world and the region. Economic growth, industrial production, and exports showed positive improvements quarterly and monthly. In June, credit rating agency Fitch Ratings affirmed Vietnam’s credit rating as BB, and it was upgraded to BB+ in December with a “stable” outlook, while some major economies experienced credit rating downgrades.
From an international perspective, Vietnam’s economy has applied resilience to overcome adversity. According to the World Bank, Vietnam’s economy in 2023 demonstrated resilience and positivity in the face of global challenges. Vietnam’s growth rate has maintained a level that many countries can only dream of.
From an international perspective, Vietnam’s economy has applied resilience to overcome adversity.
HSBC Bank stated that Vietnam’s economy has shown durability and recovery amid challenges. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) believes that Vietnam’s growth rate is excellent compared to many countries in the region. In 2024, the ADB forecasts a 6% GDP growth rate for Vietnam, higher than the projected 5.2% growth rate in 2023.
In 2023, Vietnam’s economy overcame challenges and achieved remarkable results. Macroeconomic stability, controlled inflation, increased disbursement of public investment capital, recovery of exports, record-breaking foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement – all demonstrated Vietnam’s successful economic performance. The State Bank of Vietnam has implemented four interest rate cuts, with credit growth reaching 13.7%, in line with macroeconomic balance. The exchange rate was adjusted to 2.89%, helping Vietnam withstand external shocks.
The scientific and technological ecosystem, innovation, and the national innovation network continue to strengthen. New industries such as chip production and semiconductors have been promoted. Domestic and foreign business communities have increased their trust in Vietnam’s investment environment.
In 2023, the country completed an additional 475 km of highway (photo: Văn Đức).
In 2023, the disbursement of public investment capital is expected to reach 95% of the plan (91.42% in 2022), with an absolute value of nearly 676 trillion dong, the highest to date. The country also completed an additional 475 km of highways, increasing the total length of highways to about 1,900 km. Several projects were initiated, including the East-West highway route, two ring roads, the Tuyên Quang – Hà Giang highway, Terminal T3 – Tân Sơn Nhất International Airport, and the Long Thành International Airport project.
Business promotion and foreign investment attraction have shown many positive changes, making them highlights in the economic landscape. The total registered investment capital reached a record high of $36.6 billion, a 32.1% increase compared to 2022. Disbursed capital achieved an impressive result with $23.18 billion, a 3.5% increase over 2022, the highest level to date.
Vietnam successfully welcomed the visits of President Joe Biden and General Secretary and President Xi Jinping (photo: TTXVN).
High-level diplomatic and economic relations have become prominent and achieved significant historical milestones. Vietnam successfully welcomed the visits of General Secretary and President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden, elevating bilateral relations to Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships for peace, cooperation, and development, and Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships with all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and G20 countries.
Seizing opportunities, moving forward against the tide
In 2024, Dr. Hoàng Văn Cường, a member of the National Assembly’s Finance and Budget Committee, predicts that the “headwinds” will decrease; however, all growth rate forecasts for countries and regions are lower than in 2023. Meanwhile, Vietnam sets a target of achieving a GDP growth rate from 6% to 6.5%, higher than in 2023. “This shows that we need significant efforts to go against the trend,” said Mr. Cường, emphasizing the difficulty for Vietnam to counter the general trend by relying solely on the global economy and export resources.
Among the essential growth motivations, Mr. Cường emphasizes the determination of the Party, the National Assembly, and the Government to focus their efforts on supporting enterprises and creating new development steps in 2024.
“We must not only attract investors but also accompany them,” Mr. Cường emphasizes while noting that attention should not only be given to core infrastructure investment but also to other infrastructure areas, science and technology, and digital transformation.
Many technology corporations and investment companies have come to explore investment opportunities in Vietnam (photo: MPI).
Economic expert Võ Trí Thành believes that the most challenging period has passed, and pressure from international factors will decrease in the coming time. According to Mr. Thành, policies still need to deal with difficulties. Vietnam needs to have a long-term vision to overcome short-term hardships.
Mr. Thành proposed a series of solutions for economic recovery, including three main policy groups. Monetary policy should focus on the system of finance and banking and strengthen the economy’s resilience. Vietnam also needs stimulus policies for consumption, visas, attracting tourists, supporting workers, domestic investment attraction alongside foreign direct investment and trade promotion. Business support policies, such as tax reduction, maintaining low-interest rates, and not converting debt groups, should continue.
In 2024, the government has determined that the priority direction to promote growth is to focus on three driving forces: investment, exports, and consumption. Speaking to the media during the Lunar New Year, Mr. Nguyễn Chí Dũng, Minister of Planning and Investment, stated that, despite the difficulties and challenges, Vietnam has favorable conditions, opportunities, and timing, both domestically and internationally, to leverage and promote the mentioned growth drivers.
Free trade agreements (FTAs), achievements in foreign affairs and economic diplomacy over the past years, especially establishing comprehensive strategic partnerships with all permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and G20 countries, have created new opportunities and favorable conditions for expanding cooperation, market development, attracting FDI, green finance, and technology to serve national development.
Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyễn Chí Dũng (photo: MPI).
In 2023, Vietnam’s economy showed signs of recovery with an estimated growth rate of 5.05%, among the highest regionally and globally, with stable macroeconomics and major balances ensured. These results have been highly rated by international organizations, global corporations, and credit rating agencies, providing momentum to achieve goals, tasks, and solutions in 2024.
According to the Minister of Planning and Investment, fundamental elements in terms of institutions, infrastructure, human resources quality, science and technology, and innovation have continued to improve and achieve noticeable results, especially after the National Assembly passed the amended Land Law and Credit Institutions Law in the early months of 2024. Moreover, essential national, regional, and provincial-level plans have been substantially completed, accompanied by the commencement of numerous strategic, high-profile infrastructure projects such as highways, coastal routes, inter-regional connections, creating new development space for the country, regions, and localities.
Many difficulties and obstacles related to business legal issues, investment projects, public investment, state budget, construction, bidding, etc., have been focused on resolving, achieving clear results. Administrative procedure reform and improving the investment business environment have been intensified.
