MARKET ASSESSMENT FOR THE WEEK OF 04/08-12/2024
During the weekly timeframe (04/08-12/2024), the VN-Index gained strongly and retested the previous peak in August 2022 (equivalent to the 1,275-1,290 point range).
The Stochastic Oscillator is giving a sell signal in the overbought zone, indicating a short-term correction may occur in the near future if the indicator falls out of this zone.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Trend and Price Fluctuation Analysis
VN-Index – Appearance of a candlestick pattern similar to White Marubozu
In the trading session on April 12, 2024, the VN-Index gained points and a candlestick pattern similar to White Marubozu appeared, along with volume that improved compared to the previous session, indicating quite optimistic sentiment among investors.
However, the trading volume in recent sessions is still below the 20-session average, while the MACD indicator continues to trend down after giving a sell signal, so the positive outlook is unlikely to return soon.
In addition, the index has rebounded after testing the lower end of the Bullish Price Channel in the medium term and is retesting the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level (equivalent to the 1,275-1,295 point range) in a context where ADX continues to weaken after crossing below 20, so the market is likely to see continued divergence and choppy movements in the coming sessions.
HNX-Index – Formation of a Golden Cross
In the trading session on April 12, 2024, the HNX-Index continued to gain points and a White Marubozu candlestick pattern appeared after the formation of a Golden Cross between the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, indicating a positive outlook in the long term.
Currently, the index has rebounded after testing the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level (equivalent to the 236-240 point range) that had been successfully broken previously in March 2024, while the MACD is showing signs of narrowing its gap with the Signal line. If the indicator gives a buy signal again, the medium-term uptrend will be further strengthened.
Cash Flow Analysis
Smart money flow movement: The VN-Index‘s Negative Volume Index has crossed down and is below the 20-day EMA. Therefore, the risk of a sudden drop (thrust down) will increase.
Foreign cash flow movement: Foreign investors continued to sell net in the trading session on April 12, 2024. If foreign investors maintain this action in the coming sessions, the situation will be more pessimistic.
Technical Analysis Department, Vietstock Consulting Department
