Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung speaks at the meeting – Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac
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Striving to successfully complete and surpass socio-economic development goals for 2024
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, since the beginning of the year, the world has continued to face numerous difficulties, challenges, and unpredictable situations, especially military conflicts and political instability escalating in several countries and regions. Many countries’ currencies have depreciated significantly against the USD, while the prices of gold, oil, raw materials, goods, and global transportation have fluctuated sharply.
Despite this challenging context, Vietnam’s socio-economic activities have witnessed a positive recovery, with each month and quarter showing better results than the previous one. The economy has grown beyond the expectations of organizations and management scenarios, with macroeconomic stability, inflation under control, and major balances ensured. The budget deficit, public debt, government debt, and foreign debt are all within permissible limits. Ministries, sectors, and localities have continued to strictly follow the Government and the Prime Minister’s directions, with a “no retreat, only action” mindset, striving to complete the significant tasks and workload ahead.
Specifically, GDP growth in the second quarter is estimated at 6.93% year-on-year, and for the first six months, it reached 6.42%, surpassing the upper limit of the scenario in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP (6.0%).
“If this growth momentum is maintained and further promoted, the growth rate for 2024 is likely to reach or even exceed the upper limit of the target set by the National Assembly (6.5%),” said Minister Nguyen Chi Dung.
Along with this, the growth drivers from the supply side have continued to improve positively. The agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, and services sectors have maintained a good growth rate, while the industry and construction sector has recovered rapidly.
At the same time, growth drivers from the demand side have also witnessed a positive recovery. Social investment capital in the second quarter increased by 7.5% over the same period last year, and in the first six months, it rose by 6.8%, with private investment increasing by 6.7%.
Total registered FDI in the first six months reached nearly $15.2 billion, up 13.1% year-on-year. Newly registered FDI was over $9.5 billion, up 46.9%, while realized FDI was approximately $10.8 billion, up 8.2%. Many large-scale FDI projects in the fields of semiconductors, electronics, and energy have been newly invested or expanded with additional capital.
Since the beginning of the year, the Government, ministries, sectors, and localities have been resolute in focusing on perfecting institutions and laws and improving the business investment environment. They have also addressed bottlenecks and promoted investment in strategic infrastructure projects while boosting new growth drivers for the economy.
“The achievements in the first six months have laid a foundation for striving to successfully complete and surpass socio-economic development goals for 2024,” emphasized Minister Nguyen Chi Dung.
However, the Ministry of Planning and Investment also foresees significant challenges and difficulties in the coming months. It believes that ministries, sectors, and localities need to further promote their initiative, innovation, and creativity, daring to think and act, and coordinate closely and effectively to maintain the economy’s recovery momentum. A consistent priority is given to promoting growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major balances.
Updating the 2024 growth scenario
Based on the results of the second quarter and the first six months, along with the full-year forecast, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has proposed two growth scenarios.
Scenario 1:Â Annual growth reaches 6.5% (the upper limit of the target set by the National Assembly), with growth in the third quarter at 6.5% and the fourth quarter at 6.6% (as per the scenario in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP, 6.7% and 7.0%, respectively).
Scenario 2:Â Annual growth reaches 7%, with the third quarter at 7.4% and the fourth quarter at 7.6%, higher than the scenario in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.
At the meeting, the Ministry of Planning and Investment also proposed choosing a growth scenario of 6.5-7% for the year, striving for a high level of 7%, based on the following six factors: (1) Positive growth trends in various economic sectors; (2) Faster recovery of private and state-owned enterprise investment, with sustained positive FDI growth; (3) Maintaining and accelerating export growth, especially focusing on large markets showing signs of slowing down, such as China and Japan; (4) Faster growth in tourism and consumption, striving to achieve and surpass the target of international tourist attraction; (5) New policies and legal regulations about to be issued and take effect; (6) The strong direction and administration of the Government and the Prime Minister, along with the efforts and determination of ministries, sectors, and localities, especially key economic localities such as Hanoi, Danang, Ho Chi Minh City, and Binh Duong. If these localities achieve high growth, it will help the country’s growth exceed 6.5%.
Key tasks and solutions for the next quarter
Regarding key tasks and solutions for July and the third quarter of 2024, the Ministry of Planning and Investment proposed paying attention to the following ten groups of tasks and solutions.
First, urgently materialize and implement the Laws and Resolutions that the National Assembly passed at the seventh session.
Second, promptly issue and finalize guiding documents at both the central and local levels in July to apply the Laws on Land, Real Estate Business, and Housing from August 1, 2024.
Third, ensure the progress of the contents submitted to the National Assembly at the eighth session, as directed by the Government and the Prime Minister.
Fourth, continue to strongly promote and renew growth drivers in investment, consumption, and exports, and maximize new growth drivers from digital transformation, green transition, etc.
Fifth, continue to ensure macroeconomic stability and major balances of the economy.
Sixth, focus on perfecting institutions and laws, promoting administrative procedure reform, and improving the business investment environment. Accelerate the rearrangement of district- and commune-level administrative units. Strengthen discipline and administrative discipline and effectively implement regulations on protecting officials who dare to think and act.
Seventh, materialize international treaties and agreements reached by high-level leaders, and maximize new opportunities for growth and development.
Eighth, pay attention to social security, cultural development, education, healthcare, and environmental protection. Improve the quality of forecasting and proactively prevent and control natural disasters, floods, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion. Effectively implement the Plan to carry out the Movement to eliminate temporary and dilapidated houses and study the establishment of a Fund for “eliminating temporary and dilapidated houses” in July.
Ninth, ensure national defense and security and social order and safety. Strengthen extensive, substantive, and effective international integration, promote economic diplomacy, and continuously consolidate and enhance the country’s position and reputation internationally.
Finally, strengthen information and propaganda, especially policy communication, improve the effectiveness of civil affairs work, and create social consensus.
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