Propose adding a bad scenario script to “shock” the economy

In addition to the positive economic growth scenarios for 2024, Vietnam needs to prepare for negative scenarios to enhance its ability to cope with unexpected shocks.

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In 2024, the Vietnamese economic growth is expected to face significant challenges. As Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung stated, “In 2024, potential risks from the global political and economic environment will continue to negatively impact Vietnam’s growth prospects.”

Furthermore, strategic competition among major countries is intensifying, and conflicts such as Ukraine and Gaza may prolong, leading to increased political and economic fragmentation. The Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, including Southeast Asia, continue to be global growth drivers, but also harbor many unpredictable hotspots that threaten the region’s peace and stability.

Economic growth and global investment are predicted to continue declining, affecting Vietnam’s economic growth (Illustrative image)

In addition, global economic growth, trade, and investment continue to decline. Inflation and monetary policies in some major economies remain uncertain. Particularly, the acceleration and legalization of new trade and international investment standards by countries exert global enforcement pressure, affecting the competitiveness of developing countries, including Vietnam…

In this context, economic scenarios for 2024 have been put forward by domestic and foreign economic organizations. Specifically, UOB (Singapore) Bank has projected Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2024 at around 6%, close to the target set by the National Assembly for a growth rate of 6-6.5%.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also forecasts Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024 to reach about 4%. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Vietnam’s GDP is expected to grow by 5.8% in 2024, ranking among the top 20 fastest-growing economies in the world.

Recently, the Central Economic Management Research Institute has presented two growth scenarios for 2024: scenario 1 with growth of about 6.13% and scenario 2 with growth of 6.48%.

Although the projected growth scenarios have not yet reached the maximum target of 6.5% set by the National Assembly, they are still high scenarios that require great efforts from the Government, ministries, localities, business communities, and individuals.

The business community still faces many challenges (Illustrative image)

Furthermore, according to Nguyen Bich Lam, former director-general of the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and Investment), to achieve a 6-6.5% GDP growth rate in 2024, it is estimated that the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector will increase by about 3-3.2%, lower than 0.63 – 0.8 percentage points compared to 2023; the industry and construction sector will increase by 6.2% – 6.9%, higher by 2.46 – 3.16 percentage points; the services sector will increase by 6.7% – 7.1%, higher by 0.28 percentage points.

“These growth rates are not easy to achieve as the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector has already grown significantly in 2023. In the context of global economic downturn, fluctuating global trade, and pessimistic outlooks, the industrial recovery and high growth of the services sector face strong challenges. Domestic consumption is still weak, impeding significant growth in the services sector,” said Nguyen Bich Lam.

Based on the above analysis, according to economists, in order to cope with unforeseen circumstances, in addition to positive growth scenarios, Vietnam needs to prepare for worse growth scenarios. These are scenarios that “no one desires but should be prepared for” to timely respond to new emerging situations that could affect the achievement of economic growth goals.

In relation to this issue, economist Vo Tri Thanh, director of the Brand Strategy and Competition Research Institute, suggests: In the 2024 economic growth scenarios, there should be additional negative scenarios to anticipate unexpected shocks. The government should have three-month forecasts of the growth situation, within which if there is a major shock, a negative scenario should be prepared to face it.

Agreeing with the above viewpoint, despite the proposal to add a 7% growth scenario in 2024 to make extraordinary efforts to contribute to the economic growth in 2024 and the 2021-2025 period, economist Le Duy Binh, Director of Economica Vietnam, still suggests adding a negative scenario to anticipate and respond promptly to unexpected shocks.

SOURCEcafef
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