Analyst says the stock market has seen positive developments recently, such as companies increasing their cash dividend payments at shareholder meetings. This creates better market valuation conditions and makes the market more attractive.
Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Iran-Israel conflict, have cooled down. Most positively, oil prices have fallen rapidly, which in turn has reduced inflation. As a result, the US dollar is facing less pressure, leading to a slowdown in the increase of the USD/VND exchange rate and reducing risk factors.
In addition, global stock markets have been heavily discounted recently, also positively impacting the domestic stock market and attracting a return of global money into the Vietnamese market.
analyst says.
Stock market expected to fluctuate after May Day holiday. (Illustrative image)
The analyst also believes that the large amount of cash on deposit at brokerage firms is due to many investors selling their stocks before the holiday. In addition, there is also an inflow of idle money from savings channels into the stock market.
“I believe money will keep moving, so the picture will be quite bright after the holiday,”
the analyst predicts optimistically.
Based on his personal experience, the analyst added that if the stock market rises significantly before a holiday, it is a cause for concern for a correction cycle after the holiday. However, if the market falls sharply before a holiday, it is a positive sign for the period after.
Meanwhile, another expert predicts:
“If before the holiday the market experiences a sharp drop of around 10% and recovers before the holiday, there will be a downward adjustment, with an amplitude close to the drop before the holiday.”
The expert cites as an example the stock market during the May Day holiday in 2022, when the VN-Index fell by more than 17% in nearly a month and recovered by around 8% in the week before the holiday, then fell by more than 15% after the holiday.
Similarly, at the current stage, after distributing to create a peak around 1 month, the VN-Index has a downward adjustment of 10% in about half a month and then has a recovery before the holiday of more than 3.5% in about 1 week.
“In terms of the current technical factors, I see that the increase in recent sessions is just a technical bounce and there is no signal of a bottom yet. Therefore, in my opinion, it is quite likely that after the holiday the market will have a downward correction. It is forecasted that by mid-May, the possibility of creating a bottom will increase,”
the expert analyzes.
The groups of stocks that the expert highly appreciates and finds attractive in the market are the brokerage groups that have grown strongly in the first quarter.
In addition, the steel industry stocks benefit from the recovery of the real estate market as well as the government’s strong investment. The leading stocks group HPG estimates that the business results in the first quarter will increase by more than 600%, which is very promising.
Also expressing his personal opinion, Mr. Dang Tran Phuc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of AZfin Vietnam JSC, said that at present and in the short term, the stock market is still affected by US economic data, including GDP growth; inflation and the FED’s interest rate policy.
“These are the factors that affect investor sentiment, thereby determining the short-term performance of the stock market,”
said Mr. Phuc.
In addition, the performance of the domestic stock market is also affected by the results of the first quarter and the dividend payment of enterprises that will take place en masse in the second quarter. These are important factors affecting investor sentiment and behavior.
Forecasting the stock market after the 5-day holiday, Mr. Phuc cautiously said that it could be “sunny in the morning, rainy in the afternoon”, because just one change in events will immediately have a strong impact on the stock market.
“During and after the holiday, investors must follow both the domestic market and world developments to make calculations. However, for long-term investors, I believe that the recent correction of the stock market is an excellent opportunity to continue buying blue chips with positive business results.
In addition, investors should also consider buying stocks of leading enterprises with impressive business results in the first quarter and whose valuations are lower than the average of many years,”
Mr. Phuc advised.
Closing the trading session before the holiday (April 26), the VN-Index increased by 4.55 points (0.38%) to 1,209.52 points. The HNX-Index decreased by 0.75 points (0.33%) to 226.82 points. The UPCoM-Index increased by 0.43 points (0.49%) to 88.76 points.
The market will observe a 5-day holiday starting from April 27th. On the substitute working Saturday (May 4th), the stock exchanges and VSDC will not perform trading, clearing, and payment activities.
