Hanoi, Vietnam
The General Statistics Office’s latest report on the socio-economic situation reveals that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2024 grew positively, with an estimated increase of 6.93% compared to the same period last year. The six-month GDP in 2024 rose by 6.42%, slightly lower than the 6.58% growth rate in the first half of 2022, during the 2020-2024 period.
According to Business Today, Vietnam’s economic growth accelerated in the second quarter, driven by robust exports. The country’s exports in the first half of the year surged by 14.5% year-on-year, reaching a value of $190 billion.
Commenting on Vietnam’s economic growth, Mr. Jose Vinals, Chairman of Standard Chartered, stated that compared to the global economic growth forecast of slightly over 3% for 2024, Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to reach 6%, almost doubling the global rate.
Moreover, this growth rate surpasses that of emerging markets, which are projected to grow by approximately 4% this year, with emerging Asia expected to expand by 5%. As a result, Vietnam leads the world in economic growth, a commendable achievement.
“Vietnam’s growth forecast surpasses that of emerging markets, and it remains at the top of the global growth rankings. I believe this is a positive development,” said Mr. Jose Vinals, Chairman of Standard Chartered.
Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2024, UOB’s ASEAN Economic Outlook report assesses that, amidst external events such as conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which continue to weigh on global economic prospects, and challenges faced by major economies like China and Europe, the ASEAN region is increasingly viewed as a bright spot.
Specifically, UOB analysts consider the ASEAN region a global safe haven for economic growth. Accordingly, UOB forecasts that the GDP growth of the ASEAN-6 countries will increase significantly from 4.0% in 2023 to 4.9% this year.
“The region is poised to continue on a path of robust and stable growth, supported by strong tourism, domestic spending, trade, and foreign direct investment (FDI),” the UOB report stated.
Regarding Vietnam, UOB evaluates that the country’s economic outlook is bolstered by the recovery in the semiconductor cycle, stable growth in China and the region, and supply chain shifts. Accordingly, experts estimate that Vietnam’s GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024 will reach approximately 6.5%. Meanwhile, analysts from HSBC forecast that Vietnam’s GDP growth in the same period could reach 6.2%.
Mr. Micheal Kokalari, Chief Economist at VinaCapital, opined that Vietnam’s economy has achieved better-than-expected growth in the first half of 2024. The main driver of this growth was the robust recovery in the manufacturing and export sectors.
Specifically, within the increase in the total added value of the entire economy, the industry and construction sector maintained its growth momentum. The added value of the entire industry in the first six months of 2024 increased by 7.54% year-on-year, slightly lower than the 8.32% growth rate in the same period in 2022 but still contributing 2.44 percentage points to the total added value of the entire economy.
“While the main driver of Vietnam’s economy in 2023 was the recovery of the tourism sector, in 2024, the manufacturing sector will be the primary driver of the country’s economic growth,” emphasized Mr. Micheal Kokalari.
Consequently, VinaCapital maintains its GDP growth expectation for Vietnam in 2024 at 6.5%. Specifically, in the second half, VinaCapital anticipates a continued recovery in the country’s manufacturing sector. This assessment is based on Vietnam’s export growth of 15% in the first half of 2024, along with a nearly 9% increase in the processing and manufacturing industry.
“When Vietnam’s export growth rate is higher than its production growth rate, it indicates a tendency for manufacturers’ inventories to decrease. This also implies that production will recover in the latter half,” explained the VinaCapital expert.
Additionally, the 30% increase in the base salary will further boost consumption recovery. VinaCapital also expects public investment spending to continue rising in the second half of 2024.
Territory-based credit policy in Ho Chi Minh City shows nearly 39% growth
Credit programs, not only support and assist the poor and vulnerable, who are the main subjects of policies in Ho Chi Minh City, with capital for production and business to create livelihoods and employment opportunities, but also play a significant role in the direction of sustainable economic development, economic growth, and social security ensured by the Government.
Looking back at meaningful credit policies
Results in overcoming obstacles, recovery, and business growth, as well as macroeconomic stability, are greatly influenced by credit and policy credit.
TPHCM’s economy may grow by 6-7.12% in Q1/2024.
With a favorable scenario in the first quarter of 2024, Ho Chi Minh City is expected to experience a growth rate of 6-7.12%.
Will Vietnamese fruit and vegetable exports set a new record?
From the beginning of 2024, the export field of vegetables and fruits in Vietnam has received positive signals, with the estimated export turnover of over 500 million USD. With the current market trends, the vegetable and fruit industry is forecasted to set a new record and contribute 6-6.5 billion USD to the agricultural sector in 2024.
