In the derivatives market, according to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange MXV, Arabica coffee prices rose by 0.95% to close at $5,503.83 per ton on August 26th—the highest in two and a half years—continuing the upward trend from the previous week.
The main factors supporting the price increase are concerns about dry weather in Brazil and a tightening global coffee surplus. In Brazil, the Southeast region, which is the country’s main coffee-growing area, is expected to experience drought conditions until mid-September. This could negatively impact the coffee trees that are currently flowering for the 2025-2026 harvest, potentially reducing supply.
Additionally, according to a Reuters survey, exporters and analysts predict a tighter supply for the 2024-2025 crop. They estimate that production will only exceed demand by 150,000 bags, down from a surplus of 750,000 bags in 2023-2024. With the narrowing surplus, respondents to the survey forecast that Arabica coffee prices could reach $5.90 per kg by the end of this year, an increase of 10 cents compared to the closing price on August 26th.
Illustrative image – Source: Báo Đầu tư
Robusta coffee prices are also hovering at record highs due to concerns about tight supply from Vietnam. In the domestic market this morning (August 27th), the price of bulk coffee in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces ranged from VND 119,200 to VND 120,200 per kg, an increase of VND 200-400 per kg compared to last week.
Specifically, the price of coffee in Dak Lak province was VND 112,000 per kg, up VND 200 per kg compared to the previous trading session. In Lam Dong province, coffee prices were VND 119,200 per kg, an increase of VND 200 per kg from yesterday. In Gia Lai province, coffee prices were VND 112,000 per kg, up VND 200 per kg from the previous day. Dak Nong province saw the biggest increase, with coffee prices trading at VND 120,200 per kg, an increase of VND 400 per kg.
The futures contract for Robusta coffee on the London Commodity Exchange has surged past its previous all-time high and is now trading above the $5,100 per ton mark.
According to experts, factors such as unfavorable weather conditions, transportation disruptions, and tightening legal environments in various countries will cause significant fluctuations in global coffee prices until the end of 2024.
Some long-term forecasts suggest that coffee prices will continue to rise due to climate change and other factors, despite a potential cooldown in early 2025.
In Vietnam, the coffee industry is an important agricultural sector, especially for the production and export of Robusta coffee. With favorable climate and soil conditions, Vietnam has become the world’s second-largest coffee producer. The country exports a large volume of coffee beans, mainly to major coffee-consuming countries such as the United States, Germany, and Italy.
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