Today’s price action was interrupted by the patience of waiting liquidity, stifling any potential recovery. It was only when prices dipped lower that larger waiting orders emerged, revealing substantial buy-side interest. The low volume carried over from last weekend’s session, which could be seen as a positive sign as those who wanted to cut losses have likely already done so.
The unexpected macroeconomic data released over the weekend created some initial excitement, but the market sentiment quickly turned sour as buying pressure waned. Sellers are currently in control of the market, and price negotiations will likely result in more back-and-forth sessions like today’s with low volume until those with capital become more aggressive.
Intraday fluctuations are causing frustration among investors, as any upward movement is met with selling pressure pushing prices back down. However, this sentiment is primarily felt by stockholders, while those with cash reserves remain comfortable. The market is still in the “margin testing” phase and has yet to reach the stage of testing investors’ psychology. It will only transition to the bottom-forming phase when stockholders become apathetic to price movements.
Today’s session had two positive notes. Firstly, the volume; in a downward trend, slow trading after high-volume distribution and sharp declines indicates either a reduction in selling pressure or a decrease in loose liquidity. The matched orders on the two exchanges today totaled 11.5 thousand billion, similar to mid-September sessions. Secondly, the appearance of substantial buy orders at deep-discount prices towards the end of today’s session indicates that market participants’ attitudes are shifting, as evidenced by the impressive reversals in some stocks, particularly in the securities sector.
Market transactions are always a probe into the thinking of each side, and volume, range, and price fluctuations are part of that outcome. While guesses can be right or wrong, consistent signals across multiple sessions increase the likelihood of accuracy. Therefore, the process of forming a market bottom or top always involves unsuccessful fluctuations and rarely ends within 1-2 sessions.
Some stocks have corrected to attractive buying levels, but as the market remains unstable, a gradual purchasing strategy is advisable. Stockholders are at a relative disadvantage, so patience will be a virtue. Buying on dips is easy, as it merely involves covering previously sold positions, and there is enough to go around without competition.
Today’s futures market continued to reflect expectations of the underlying market, with the F1 basis remaining positive throughout the day. However, this situation on low volume is easily exploitable by short sellers. To increase volatility, short sellers need to push the underlying market. While the morning session saw VN30 dip below 1341.xx, it was not an effective short-selling opportunity as the underlying market remained range-bound, and those who didn’t cut their positions quickly incurred losses. The afternoon session was more favorable, with the second dip below 1341.xx resulting in increased selling pressure and a wider range for VN30, despite the unchanged basis limiting short-selling profits.
Today’s significant drop in volume indicates a decrease in loose liquidity, suggesting that the market may experience a few narrow-range sessions with low volume or sessions with forced selling to test supply. The strategy remains to look for buying opportunities in stocks and dynamically manage long and short positions in derivatives.
VN30 closed today at 1335.48. Tomorrow’s resistance levels are 1341, 1348, 1356, and 1365. Support levels are 1333, 1325, 1318, and 1308.
“Blog Chứng Khoán” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The assessments and investment views expressed are those of the author, and VnEconomy respects the author’s perspective and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the published assessments and investment views.
