According to the OneHousing Market Research and Customer Insights Center, the supply shortage has not improved, and the scarcity of mid-range projects has driven up the average selling price of the overall market in Q3 2024 to VND 80.2 million/sqm, a 5% increase from the previous quarter.
The luxury and high-end segments continue to dominate, with 90% of new apartment supply in Ho Chi Minh City priced at VND 60 million/sqm or higher (excluding VAT and maintenance fees). Particularly in the East region, which accounted for 65% of new supply in the first nine months of the year, a new price level has been established. There are indications that previously stalled projects are being restarted, with expected prices two to three times higher than previous launches. Moreover, most upcoming projects in this area are also expected to be priced above VND 100 million/sqm.
As a result, apartments priced below VND 3 billion are becoming increasingly rare, with units below VND 2 billion disappearing since 2023 and those below VND 1 billion no longer available since 2020.
Mr. Tran Minh Tien, Director of the OneHousing Market Research and Customer Insights Center, explains that in large cities like Ho Chi Minh City, the availability of “clean” land with complete legal documentation for commercial real estate development is becoming increasingly limited, driving up land prices.
“Ho Chi Minh City has implemented a new land price framework until December 31, 2025, and will update it annually from 2026, resulting in higher costs for compensation and site clearance. Along with macroeconomic fluctuations, this has led to increased project development costs, causing apartments priced below VND 3 billion to gradually disappear and shift to neighboring provinces with more abundant land resources and lower development costs,” said Mr. Tien.
Despite the high prices, Ho Chi Minh City’s real estate market is showing strong signs of recovery in both supply and consumption, with the East region, particularly the former District 2, as the focal point. The success of new projects such as Masteri Grand View (with over 2,500 early purchases) and Eaton Park (with over 1,300 early purchases) has given a significant boost to the market.
The simultaneous launch of various projects in December and the restart of previously stalled ones reflect the positive impact of the amended laws enacted in August 2024, reinforcing the confidence of homebuyers and investors.
Mr. Tran Minh Tien states that the expected new supply for 2025 could double that of 2024, reaching approximately 12,000 units and signifying the recovery of Ho Chi Minh City’s apartment market.
The expert predicts that Ho Chi Minh City’s high-rise market in 2024-2025 will be propelled by three key growth drivers: synchronized infrastructure development, amended laws addressing legal bottlenecks, and the growing housing demand from Vietnam’s burgeoning middle class.
“The current market conditions in Ho Chi Minh City present a favorable opportunity for investment consideration. Developers are increasingly offering flexible payment policies and financial support, making it easier for buyers to access quality projects. Prime location projects continue to witness healthy price growth. However, investors and homebuyers must carefully select products that align with their needs and financial capabilities,” advises Mr. Tien.
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