Why did rice export prices abruptly decrease and then reverse to increase?

With positive information about the market, rice prices have reversed their previous decline and are expected to continue to increase as the peak harvest season approaches.

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According to the update from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), as of early March, the export price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice was $594 per ton, a decrease of $6 per ton compared to February 28. This is the lowest export price in the past 6 years, since the world rice price has established a new level since India banned the export of regular white rice at the end of July 2023. 

Companies said that the decrease of rice export price was mainly due to Vietnam entering the spring crop harvest season and importing countries were waiting for the price to drop before signing contracts.

According to the report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, as of mid-February, the whole country had planted more than 2.6 million hectares of winter-spring rice, equivalent to 99.6% compared to the same period last year.

The harvested area is estimated to reach 598,000 hectares, equivalent to 97.8% of the same period; the output is estimated at 3.2 million tons on the harvested area, equivalent to 98.7% compared to the same period; the average yield is estimated at 53.7 tons per hectare, equivalent to 101% of the previous year.

Rice export continues to be favorable in 2024

In the domestic market, the price of rice in February 2024 tended to decrease in the Mekong Delta provinces. In An Giang, the average purchase price of fresh IR50404 rice in February was 8,177 VND/kg, a decrease of 11.8% compared to January 2024 but an increase of 22.1% compared to the same period in 2023; the average purchase price of fresh OM5451 rice in February reached 8,317 VND/kg, a decrease of 9.8% compared to January 2024 but an increase of 22.3% compared to the same period in 2023.

In Tien Giang, the average common rice price in February was 7,400 VND/kg, a decrease of 1.2% compared to January 2024 but an increase of 19.4% compared to the same period in 2023.

On March 2, Nguyen Van Don, Chairman of Viet Hung Co., Ltd. (Tien Giang), confirmed that the recent export price of 5% broken rice has been traded around 590-600 USD/ton but the market is trending upward. The demand for rice imports from countries remains high.

“In the past 3 days, the purchasing price of rice has increased by 300 – 400 VND/kg and this trend continues as there is continuous good news about the market. Export companies have stepped up purchases because they can no longer wait. The market has set a bottom price, so it cannot decrease anymore” – Don predicted.

In the first 2 months of the year, rice exports reached an estimated 1.01 million tons, bringing in a value of 708 million USD, an increase of 13.3% in volume and 49.8% in value compared to the same period in 2023.

The average export price of rice in the first 2 months of 2024 is estimated at 699 USD/ton, an increase of 32.2% compared to 2022.

In January 2024, the Philippines is the largest market for Vietnam’s rice consumption with a market share of 53.6%, reaching 280.9 thousand tons and 194 million USD, an increase of 2.2 times in volume and 3 times in value compared to the same period in 2023.

SOURCEcafef
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