On February 29th, the Ministry of Industry and Trade organized a conference to evaluate the export situation and provide orientations for trade promotion and the development of the rice market in 2024.
Conference to evaluate the export situation and provide orientations for trade promotion and the development of the rice market in 2024.
Mr. Tran Quoc Toan, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, shared information from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) stating that in 2024, the global rice supply is predicted to decrease, while the import demand of many countries is on the rise.
Specifically, global rice trade continues to be impacted by India’s decision to temporarily suspend rice exports.
In addition, the global rice supply is forecasted to decrease as the main supplier, India, which accounts for 40% of global production, is expected to reduce 4 million tons compared to the previous harvest, leaving only 132 million tons; other markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Cambodia, etc., are also projected to decrease production due to the impact of El Nino and climate change.
The global end-of-season stock is projected to be 167.2 million tons for the 2023-2024 crop year, a decrease of 8.6 million tons compared to the previous crop year, and is the lowest inventory level in the past 6 crop years.
Meanwhile, positive signals in import forecasts still appear in traditional markets such as China, Indonesia, the Philippines; Vietnamese markets have an advantage with signed free trade agreements such as the EU, South Korea, Japan; or potential developing markets like the United States or Middle Eastern countries.
From the reality of the rice market, Vietnam’s Commercial Counsellor to the Philippines, Mr. Phung Van Thanh, said that in 2024, the rice import demand of the Philippines is still high, estimated at around 3.5 to 3.8 million tons.
Mr. Thanh informed that the Philippines has always been an important rice export market for Vietnam in recent years. Therefore, the Commercial Office recommended domestic rice exporters, besides taking advantage of new opportunities in new markets, to also continue to maintain and secure Vietnam’s number 1 position in rice exports to the Philippine market. Currently, Thailand is also trying to increase production and export market share to the Philippines, competing with Vietnamese rice.
As for the Indonesian market, Mr. Pham The Cuong, Commercial Counsellor of Vietnam to Indonesia, said that on February 26, 2024, Indonesian Minister of Trade Zulkifli Hasan announced that the total planned rice import volume of Indonesia that the Government had decided to import in 2024 is 3.6 million tons, an increase of 1.6 million tons compared to the initial estimate due to delays in the main cultivation season caused by water shortage for cultivation and the impact of El Nino in 2023.
Currently, Indonesia is facing a severe rice shortage situation, as the main harvesting season has not yet begun and the Ramadan month of the Muslim population will begin in mid-March 2024 and last for a month, causing an increase in food and grain demand.
“It is forecasted that the Indonesian Government will have to continue to open tenders to purchase more rice, in addition to the 500,000 tons of rice tender that was held on January 17, 2024 (in which Vietnamese rice exporters won the bid to supply more than 300,000 tons)” – Mr. Cuong said.
Thus, the Commercial Office of Vietnam in Indonesia recommends that Vietnamese rice exporters closely monitor market information, seize the opportunity to export rice in the early months of the year to the Indonesian market.
According to the Import-Export Department, as of the end of January 2024, Vietnamese rice has been exported to 27 markets with a volume of over 512,000 tons and a value of 362 million USD, increasing by 42.8% in volume and 94.5% in value compared to the same period in 2022.
