MARKET COMMENTARY WEEK 04-08/03/2024
During the week of 04-08/03/2024, VN-Index experienced a significant decline and the upward momentum paused after 4 consecutive weeks of gains.
In addition, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator has entered the overbought zone, indicating an increased risk of correction if selling signals reappear.
Currently, the previous peak level reached in September 2023 (equivalent to the range of 1,230-1,260 points) will act as a support zone for the index in case of any upcoming adjustments.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Trend Analysis and Price Fluctuation
VN-Index – Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern
On the trading day of 08/03/2024, VN-Index dropped significantly and formed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern with a sudden increase in trading volume surpassing the 20-day average, indicating the prevailing pessimism among investors.
In addition, the Stochastic Oscillator has given a sell signal and is heading downwards after the formation of a price divergence (Bearish Divergence) in the overbought zone. This suggests a more bearish scenario is likely to occur once the indicator falls out of this zone.
Currently, VN-Index is testing the previous peak level in September 2023 (equivalent to the range of 1,240-1,260 points). If the index undergoes a deep correction and breaks down this level, the Fibonacci Projection 50% level (equivalent to the range of 1,200-1,220 points) will serve as the next potential support in the near future.
HNX-Index – Ascending Triangle Pattern Still Valid
On the trading day of 08/03/2024, HNX-Index experienced a slight decline accompanied by a continued increase in trading volume surpassing the 20-day average, indicating the prevailing cautious sentiment among investors.
In addition, the MACD and Signal lines are gradually converging. If selling signals reappear, the prospects in the near future will be more pessimistic.
However, HNX-Index is currently well supported by the upper edge (equivalent to the range of 233-235 points) of the Ascending Triangle pattern. If the index continues to hold above this zone, the price target in the range of 248-251 points is still valid.
Money Flow Analysis
Smart Money Flow: The Negative Volume Index of VN-Index has crossed above and is positioned above the 20-day EMA. Therefore, the risk of a sudden decline (thrust down) has reduced.
Foreign Money Flow: Foreign investors continued to be net sellers on the trading day of 08/03/2024. If foreign investors maintain this action in the upcoming sessions, the situation will be more bearish.
Technical Analysis Department, Vietstock Advisory
